Most likely, Avatar will will. Kevin Costner will then interrupt Cameron's speech in order to call attention to the plight of the people of FernGully, and of course, the Kurds. Then Peter Jackson, followed closely by Andy Serkis, will grab the mike and say that District 9 was actually the best movie of all time, leaving poor Jim Cameron scratching his head.
I'd like to see a movie like District 9 win. This would guarantee that we will see lots of bad direct to DVD gritty sci-fi movies in the coming year.
I really want Inglorious Basterds to win, but it won't. I also want Up in the Air to win, but that probably won't either. It's very cool that District 9 got a nomination, but it has a 0% chance of winning.
I'm going to say Hurt Locker will win Best Picture, while Jimmy Cameron wins Best Director for Avatar. Or vice versa, who knows?! I think it will be a split in those two categories. This year is a lot more open than the last few years, which had near certain winners.
I agree with Scott, I'm going with Hurt Locker. Avatar isn't winning any top awards from the Guilds and I think the newly added nominees will saturate the category and allow a smaller picture a better shot at the top.