2013 Oscar Picks
Well, we are less than a week away from hearing Seth MacFarlane sing a bunch of comedy songs on a stage, and I thought I'd put down my Oscar picks in our forum so that I have proof when I'm inevitably wrong. Agree with my picks? Disagree?
Best Picture: Argo
Seems like this is the way that it's playing out. Which I don't mind at all, since Django never had a chance, realistically.
Best Director: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
I don't want this to happen, but I think it will. Not that I hate the guy at all, but I just didn't dig Lincoln.
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Which will be my favorite win of the night.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
I don't think they want to give it Best Picture without giving it some other recognition too, since they chose not to be able to give Affleck anything for directing.
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
There are WAY more interesting choices available, but it will go to D-Day for best impersonation of a historical figure of the year (must give at least one historical performance an award per year). Joaquin deserves it.
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
I'm super happy the awards buzz seems to be swinging her way lately. Chastain's performance was slightly too subtle for me to want her to win.
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
I really hope it doesn't go to Tommy lee Jones, simply because, again, I didn't care for Lincoln. But I'm guessing I'll lose on the first award of the night. Damn you, Tommy Lee Jones (in advance)! Also, did anyone else see Waltz on SNL? One of the better episodes of the season. Please look up "Djesus Uncrossed" if you didn't.
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
The five minute performance of the year!
Best Editing: Argo
I thought it had the best pacing of the year.
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
OH IT'S REAL PURDY.
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
I said in my review that Anna Karenina was made simply to win the Production Design and Costume awards, and I'll stand by it!
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup: The Hobbit
Les Miserables? Hitchcock? That's the competition? What a weak year for make up.
Best Foreign Film: Amour
I mean, it is nominated for Best Picture, isn't it?
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man
It's winning ALL the awards. I notice it's on Amazon Prime Instant Video, I'll be watching this sometime this week, for sure.
Best Animated Feature: Wreck It Ralph
Brave will probably win, but hopefully they pick the better choice. Wreck it Ralph won the Annie Ward, doesn't that mean something?
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
I'm just going to go with it being the purdiest movie again.
Best Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Give it some award, plus the sound editing during the raid scene was awesome.
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
I do believe all the singing was recorded on the set without track vocals... seems like the obvious choice.
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
I actually remember the Life of Pi score, something I can't say for any of the four other nominees.
Best Original Song: Skyfall/Adele
Seems like the popular choice, even if it was only an alright song.
Best Animated Short: Paperman
Reasoning here: http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/267/4457
Best Live Action Short: Curfew
Seems like the best one. Or at least, the one I'd most like to watch.
Best Documentary Short: Open Heart
I just watched all the trailers, and this one seems like the most emotionally rewarding.
I love award show speculation!
Best Picture: Argo
Affleck has been sweeping all the director awards and Argo has gotten lots of guild love. I think that's the way it's going.
Best Director: Ang Lee
Just because I don't think it'll be Spielberg. Honestly, Zeitlin deserves it.
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
So boring, but whatever.
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Chastain was good, but there was so much more to Lawrence's performance.
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Or Argo. Probably Argo.
Production Design: Anne Karenina based completely on stills. I have no idea.
Costume Design: Les Miserables because I have no idea
Makeup: The Hobbit
Foreign Film: Kon-tiki
Documentary: Searching for Sugarman because yes, it's winning everything.
Animated Feature: Wreck-it Ralph
Visual Effects: Life of Pi because holy crap.
Sound Editing: Django Unchained
Which is probably way off but there was some very inventive sound editing going on.
Sound Mixing: I would have nominated Zero Dark Thirty HERE but eh, I'll go with Les Miserables.
Original score: Life of Pi
Original song: Skyfall
Animated short: Paperman
Short live action: Henry
Documentary short: Kings Point
Having just learned that Seth MacFarland is hosting, I saw one of his promos which says "a bunch of wealthy people giving each other trophies." I like it.
Have my DVR set, so I can watch without the commercials, song and dance numbers and any segment involving Catherine Zeta-Jones.
I'd like to see Ben Affleck win, because he has proven that you can start your career making trash and grow into a talented artist.
Now now, be fair to Ben. His first 2 leads were indies for Mark Pellington and Kevin Smith, his third was for Good Will Hunting, for which he and Matt Damon won a well-deserved Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. Did quite a few other well-regarded movies including Shakespeare in Love and Hollywoodland (both excellent IMO.) I enjoyed Armageddon, and the misfires of Daredevil and Pearl Harbor weren't exactly trash.
Gigli...well, the excuse could be that he did it for his friend and frequent collaborator Kevin Smith, one of the few misses in KS's filmography I think....and a chance to work with his girlfriend.
Most of the crap he got was in a 3-5 year stretch (depending on how you count...I count 3), where most of the grief was for being a tabloid punching bag thanks to said girlfriend, who was on a decade-long run as such. SHE made an unbroken run of terrible movies, not him, got involved with (then) Puffy, guns going off in nightclubs, etc.
Ben's subsequent choices in indies, his work ethic, his intelligence, and his genuine sweetness led to 3 very nearly flawless gigs as a director, each more highly regarded than the last. Gone Baby Gone and The Town were the others. See them if you haven't. These play almost as big a part in why Argo is going to win as anything else. (They certainly played into his DGA award. He has paid his dues as a director. Argo is not a fluke.)
Another reason: it's a story about the movie business saving the day. The Academy loves that.
Also note that Oscar voting just closed Tuesday night. Voters have been watching Argo gain steam as much as anyone else.
He's the first to admit that he made some bad choices and that the tabloid thing took him out of his game, but it was a very short span in the third act of his 20-yr career in his adult-ish life to date.
I don't mean to come off as more of a fan than I am, but this is the kind of arcana you count on from me. LOL I also hate to see the guy get slagged for a story that didn't actually happen exactly the way it's frequently told...even though the canonical narrative will help play into Argo's win. LOL
One of my favorite bits in this awards season...I don't remember which show it was, but in the press conference afterward, he was asked about the Oscar directing snub. That's nonsense, he said (and I suspect he actually feels), but what he wants to know is, why does nobody feel he was snubbed as an actor? Huge laughs in the room, including him. Fan or not, I LIKE the guy.
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Good picks, I think my ballot will look fairly similar to the ones here. My really tough choice is in some of the technical categories choosing Skyfall or Life of Pie. I haven't seen Pi, but the cinematography, score, vfx and sound were really terrific there. May have to close my eyes and point somewhere. I'm also torn on Animated Feature. I'm just not sure if a bunch of old guys will vote for a video game movie. Like Natalie Imbruglia, I'm torn.
I've been watching the tea leaves, the last of which will shake out today at the Independent Spirit Awards....so some picks with some potential upsets.
Pi should win VFX, and there's some big stuff happening behind the scenes. Rhythm & Hues is in Chapter 11, just laid off 250 people, and nobody there has been paid in 5 weeks. The issue throughout the industry has been that there are pretty much 5 customers for major VFX, and 6 people to provide the services. Since those 6 are in hammer-and-tongs competition with each other, they've allowed studios to keep driving the prices lower. Outsourcing is a smokescreen.
R&H is actually planning a protest flyover during the red carpet part of the festivities. Taking any bets on TV covering it? Great story about it in the LA Times.
Best Picture: Argo
-- Seems like one of the surer bets, mostly because Weinstein has been quiet as a mouse with Silver Linings Playbook. I'm a little surprised at softly he's played this. Gotta be a story there.
Speaking of which, while most of the facts behind Argo were declassified in 1997, the first real retelling of the story was in Wired in 2007: highly, highly recommended. You've probably heard by know that the movie takes some liberties with the facts - YAWN. Whatever. It's a movie. But the Wired article is good reading and is chock-a-block with facts. LOL
Best Director: Ang Lee
-- As good a pick as any. I really don't have a problem with any of these guys winning...expect Spielberg. LOL One of my favorites, but this doesn't meet his own standards, imo.
I saw a writer suggest that both Pi and Lincoln would have been more interesting if they'd swapped directors.
But I wouldn't count out Zeitlin. I've wondered if leaving out names like Affleck, Tarantino and last year's winner Bigelow (THAT's the snub, imo), the conclusion to draw is that it's a wide open field. ANYONE might win, and an awful lot of people feel awfully strongly about the movie.
Original Screenplay: I'm always going to want Wes Anderson to win screenplay awards, and I'm a crazy-ass fan of Silver Linings -- I said after I saw it that I was sure it was going to win the screenplay Oscar -- but I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Beasts.
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln. Not because of Lincoln, but because of Tony Kushner. I've said before that Angels In America is enough to earn him every award there is, and I truly believe it. Swimming Hall of Fame in Ft. Lauderdale? Sure, put him in there too.
But I'm not going to be surprised if Argo wins.
I'm really sorry that Perks Of Being A Wallflower wasn't nominated though. First time writer-director who adapted his own novel. I really love this thing.
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. The movie is beside the point. He was allll the way inside this thing, and the other actors know what this is like.
I'm not going to be shocked if Sally comes out on top of Anne for Supporting Actress either.
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, who SHOULD win. Man, she had every color of the rainbow in that thing. Whenever she goes into whatever Hall of Fame she goes into -- the only clip they need is when she shuts De Niro down. LOL
Supporting Actor: Quick! Name De Niro's last Oscar! Raging Bull in 1980! I think a lot of actors have been waiting a long time for their chance to vote for him. Hoffman is my back-up bet -- although wtf is he doing in SUPPORTING? Phoenix, yes, but HE was there to support PHIL -- but I don't feel all that comfortable counting out Jones either.
Editing: "Probably Argo," says Kylee, and I can definitely see it. (I also definitely see ZDT getting blanked. I think that after the controversy faded and people actually saw it...the "meh" set in.)
My pick, though: Pi.
Note that I've also seen a bunch of people picking Lincoln in the last week. I have a hard time giving an editing Oscar to a movie whose problem is being a half hour too long. LOL
Cinematography: Pi. Yes, Deakins won the ASC, but the ASC winner has only won 3 of the last 5 Oscars. Deakin has won 3 ASC awards, and even though it's his 10th Oscar nomination, I just don't think that this is substantial enough to beat Pi.
I'm also pulling for Pi because it would represent the second DP in a row who shot in 3D. :-)
I'm giving all the craft awards to Anna Karenina. Never saw the movie, probably never will, but I'm counting on what I've seen, and what I'm gambling will be Les Miz fatigue.
Foreign Film: Amour. Lock this down. One of your only sure bets of the night.
Song is another: Adelllllle. Love her, don't like the song, and mostly hope she wins because her speech will be the second best of the night behind Jennifer Lawrence.
Did you see her Golden Globes speech? I love the high-five with Daniel Craig, who couldn't possibly be more delighted.
Documentary: I'm a huge Rodriguez fan, and have been since his records were re-released in 2009. There are only 2: buy them both. The soundtrack leaves off way too many of his best songs...and did I mention that he's only done 2 records so far?
(Has 30 new ones in the bag, he says, and I'd be a-ok if this helps 'em get recorded.)
Even though I didn't think it was that great a movie, it's a great story, and I definitely see it winning. Two features are more deserving though:
--Invisible War is a harrowing account of the sexual assault of women soldiers assaulted by their brothers in arms - 1 in 3!!! - and the sorry fate that has awaited the women who report these crimes. The establishment is stepping up in a big way of late, and this movie is very nearly 100% of the reason why. And it's a really good movie.
-- The Gatekeepers is a remarkable set of interviews with all six living former head of the Israeli international security agency, Shin Bet...which to be honest, I'd never heard of before. I doubt most people have. An Israeli filmmaker works with them to tell the tale of ineffective and morally corrupt approaches that aren't likely to change -- even though these guys mostly wish they would. It's almost unimaginable to me that he got away with making the movie, much less getting it released. Great story about it from Mother Jones.
I'll be honest though. After a very short list of categories that seem crystal clear to me, this one is a hazier set of choices than I remember for a long time.....
[Tim Wilson] "Speaking of which, while most of the facts behind Argo were declassified in 1997, the first real retelling of the story was in Wired in 2007: highly, highly recommended. You've probably heard by know that the movie takes some liberties with the facts - YAWN. Whatever. It's a movie. "
Feel free to feel untroubled. um. rewriting popular cultural/political history... everyone understands Inglorious Basterds was a fantasy, too, as big a whitewash as Lincoln.... right? right? Who gives a rats' about Connecticut?
So, while we're setting the record straight: here's the skinny on the Iliad and the Odyssey:
Recently declassified documents have revealed US Special Forces used a giant rabbit to sneak into Troy one night and offered Helen Hunt (isn't she a-dorable?) a starring role in a major movie -- of course, she was outta there in a NY minute, but eventually lost the role to Angelina. However, War Over. Ulysses actually got home a bit early and caught Penelope in the shower with one of her paunchy, balding colleagues. U. beat the crap out of him, but plea-bargained (for unexplained reasons) into serving time for insanity, during which he was medicated into actual insanity but wound up with Circe, anyway and now they run a bad-dancing school.
yawn. But footnote, Its the false aura of the (probably unwitting) complicity of the White House in this that slightly unsettles me. Some of those things FLOTUS said, about why moviemaking is so vitally important, don't exactly square up in the context of how twisted the entertainment version of what she personally announced the winning best picture was from the actual events.
"I always pass on free advice -- its never of any use to me" Oscar Wilde.
[Joseph Owens] "Some of those things FLOTUS said, about why moviemaking is so vitally important, don't exactly square up..."
I didn't mind that as much as I minded the whole dang thing. I'm a big fan of FLOTUS and her husband, but none of that made the least bit of sense. Nothing about it added any value to proceedings. Was her speech as long as Seth's opening? Not quite, but man, not quite NOT.
Mixed reviews for the bangs in our viewing party too. LOL I think I was the lone thumbs up.
But a thumbs down for that ridiculous idea.