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Greg Andonian
Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 1:06:55 am

So I went to the legacy FCP forum to see if anything was being said over there about the CS6 update, and while I was there I found an interesting thread by Walter Biscardi about the smoke transformation:

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/8/1157258

In this thread Walter included a link to a site built by Autodesk-

http://www.smokeischanging.com/

There's a very interesting paragraph on there that starts to explain things a bit:

“This version of Smoke is disruptive… to take a visual effects product and make it non-linear editing centric? We’ve all wanted some software to come along and be the super app… this is what we’ve all been waiting for.”

I remember a while back there were rumors of Apple creating a high-end, all-in-one app called "Final Cut Extreme". It sounds like Autodesk is positioning Smoke as something along those same lines...

______________________________________________
"THAT'S our fail-safe point. Up until here, we still have enough track to stop the locomotive before it plunges into the ravine... But after this windmill it's the future or bust."


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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 3:56:53 am

[Greg Andonian] "It sounds like Autodesk is positioning Smoke as something along those same lines..."

From the Autodesk site:

"We’ve all wanted some software to come along and be the super app… this is what we’ve all been waiting for.”
Evan Schechtman, CTO and Industry Evangelist


Isn't this the same guy who's switching his whole shop to FCPX? Does this mean he's changing direction again, or is he simply an industry ho who'll say anything for a buck?

As a further note I will remind everyone that Discreet / Autodesk dipped their foot in the low cost NLE pool 10 years ago and promptly drowned; proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that they don't understand that market. They understand high end commercial finishing, they don't have a clue as to what an editor does for a living.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 4:18:00 am

If you look at Apple's FCPX In Action, it'll show he's a Smoke shop as well.

One might guess that Smoke handles input of FCPX XML for finishing.

[Herb Sevush] "I will remind everyone that Discreet / Autodesk dipped their foot in the low cost NLE pool 10 years ago and promptly drowned"

EditDV/Cinestream
Cleaner
Edit*
Combustion

Have they had any "affordable" Post software survive?
Each of the above was truly awesome in some fashion too.
It'll be interesting what the Smoke price point falls to.

Of course there's ROI so if awesome affordable software makes you good money for a year or three that's not the end of the post world.



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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 4:26:47 am

[Greg Andonian] " remember a while back there were rumors of Apple creating a high-end, all-in-one app called "Final Cut Extreme". It sounds like Autodesk is positioning Smoke as something along those same lines..."

I was hoping "FCP extreme" would pan out one day too but bottom line is Apple doesn't really understand video. They understand computers. Autodesk/Discreet on the other hand is in a position to do this - I hope. They absolutely get all of the nuances like dealing with pulldowns, color correction, and scaling etc. but the editing has been weak due to - IMO - a poorly designed editing interface, lack of support for compressed media, and a big one single monitor only. Any offline guy knows a big part of the editing process is just being able to deal with a massive amount of clips and you need a lot of screen space. Also the $17K price tag didn't help much either.

I'm anxious to see what they've done and as I've said before I'm actually quite happy Apple more or less killed FCP. I don't think they belong in this market and were doing more harm than good. Go Autodesk, Adobe, Avid!

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:04:21 am

Isn't Smoke on a Mac already Final Cut Extreme?


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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:23:04 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "Isn't Smoke on a Mac already Final Cut Extreme?
"


Not really, the way Smoke has been you wouldn't want to do any sort of extensive off-line. You save it for when your edit is done and you want good color, green screening, tracking etc. The missing links for Smoke were the ability to deal with a really big project with massive amounts of footage, and a good editing/trimming interface. It's not terrible but just doesn't make much sense compared to Avid and FCP. Next week should be interesting. I wonder why Adobe didn't wait. Preemptive strike?

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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David Jahns
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:00:47 am

I'll second what Robert said. As a FCP/Avid editor turned SMoke user - it's (mostly) great for finishing, but I find myself struggling with it as an editor. The overall learning curve is quite steep, and even the basic editing tools take a lot of getting used to.

Also - it's kind of a tease, if you know what the Smoke/Flame Premiums can do with their Batch FX modules. Every time I find myself needing to do a multi-step complex pipeline/ process, I find myself wishing I had the Batch FX module, which is exactly what they wanted, I'm sure!

I would personally be thrilled with some Lustre integration, Batch FX, Planar and 3d Trackers - hell give me 2 out of 3 and I'd be happy as a clam!

I can't imagine how deep a a re-write it must be for it to become a comparable editor to MC/FCP7, but I'm awfully interested to see what's in store.

See you all Sunday afternoon in Vegas!

David Jahns
---
Joint Editorial
Portland, OR


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Tero Ahlfors
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 7:19:13 am

[David Jahns] "
I'll second what Robert said. As a FCP/Avid editor turned SMoke user - it's (mostly) great for finishing, but I find myself struggling with it as an editor. The overall learning curve is quite steep, and even the basic editing tools take a lot of getting used to."


I have the same feeling. It's pretty neat in finishing, but I really wouldn't want to actually edit anything on it because it's really clunky.


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:08:07 am

Hmm. They've marketed it as an editor ever since going to Mac. Sure, it's not a traditional NLE, but it seems it does offline/transcode/online very well, no?







[Robert Brown] "I wonder why Adobe didn't wait. Preemptive strike?"

Well, it seems they built a bunch of excitement, and also released a blitz of recorded tutorials/media.

It certainly let's people get a taste of what it's all about, and then if you're going to the show, you can ask all kinds of questions about specifics. It seems like people will know what to look for.


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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 7:45:51 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "Hmm. They've marketed it as an editor ever since going to Mac. Sure, it's not a traditional NLE, but it seems it does offline/transcode/online very well, no?"

All I can say is when I learned FCP it was like "yes! this is great!" Smoke for editing is like "Why do they do it like that?" "What's up with this lock button?" "Why are the tracks so hard to map?" "Why do they change things in every new version?" Really it's like editing with boxing gloves on if you ask me.

I'm working on a show now that was recorded in 1080i but we are editing in 10:1 sd with Avid/Unity to be on-lined later and it has massive amounts of footage. We'll see if they can touch that workflow or any of the other NLE off-line work flows. Maybe they will I don't know. I'm definitely interested but Autodesk has many bad habits they've got to address to make it in a new world. I'll check it out first thing Monday.

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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moody glasgow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 2:39:21 pm

Personally, this is what I think Autodesk will do:

1. Drop the price. I think they will have to drop it to $5k or less to make it price competitive.

2. Add / improve editing features.

3. I would be shocked it they added Batch to Smoke on Mac. I think their plan is to use Smoke on Mac as an editor with some compositing, and preserve the Flame as the compositor.

4. Better CUDA support.


On the Linux platform, Autodesk has been working on unifying the Smoke and Flame interface into one product. This means eventually you will have Flame on Linux, and Smoke on Mac. Smoke was originally introduced as a "lite" version of Fire, but has turned into something much more powerful then I think they intended.

Anyways, thats my NAB eve prediction of sorts.

moody glasgow
smoke/flame
http://www.thereelthinginc.com


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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 3:12:25 pm

I think they should add Batch but that might be death for the Linux boxes which IMO is inevitable anyway. You can kind of see which way things have to go. The Smoke on Mac is already a better platform in a lot of ways or mainly that it can access everything on your computer and deal with more codecs. Also on the Linux boxes it's major pain just to mount a USB drive or stick. At least the last time I heard.

As far as Batch, you can get Nuke for 2-3K dollars so at some point I think they have to add that. I guess it's a matter of how long they think they can milk the hi-end market. The Mac Pro situation adds an odd twist too. What's this thing going to run on if the Mac Pro is EOL'd?

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 3:29:30 pm

[Robert Brown] "What's this thing going to run on if the Mac Pro is EOL'd?"

Whatever replaces it. MacPro seems to be on the way out especially after looking at Apple's Final Cut Pro In Action marketing. That doesn't mean there's not going to be another power box (doesn't mean there will but I suspect there will).

I'm not sure if this is new but it'll run on MBP and iMacs
http://area.autodesk.com/smoke2012



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moody glasgow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 4:15:14 pm

Smoke on Mac is slow compared to Smoke on Linux. The freelancers I've talked you've said it is painful to work on. I would be really shocked if Autodesk have up on the Linux platform. With the way the Mac pro is going I don't see it happening.

moody glasgow
smoke/flame
http://www.thereelthinginc.com


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 4:29:17 pm

[moody glasgow] "Smoke on Mac is slow compared to Smoke on Linux. The freelancers I've talked you've said it is painful to work on. I would be really shocked if Autodesk have up on the Linux platform. With the way the Mac pro is going I don't see it happening"

Can't be any slower than fcp7. Remember, we are Mac users, speed is not way we are used to. ;)

Haven't they been touting Smoke in a laptop for a while now?


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Tim Wilson
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:46:52 pm

Respectfully, re comments here and elsewhere about what Autodesk did 10 years ago, that's irrelevant, SEVERAL lifetimes ago. Ten years ago, Adobe had dropped Mac support for Premiere Pro, something Avid never did. However, Avid had also not yet released the Adrenaline/Nitris DNA hardware line, since deceased. FCP was still a toddler.

Since that time, Media Composer AND SYMPHONY are available as shiny dual platform software-only products that support your AJA and BMD hardware better than FCP ever did. Macromedia bought Adobe...which I'm obviously teasing about, but is kind of true to describe just how vast the sea change is, and that Premiere is powerful and Mac-y enough to make its 4 years away from Mac utterly irrelevant.

Also in that time, one of FCPX's product managers was previously the product designer for Avid Symphony. Does FCPX remind anybody here of Symphony? Of course not, but it's also a reflection of just how drastic the changes have been at Avid, with 3 regime changes in the past 5 years alone.

I don't know about Autodesk, but I suspect that their trajectory is similar. I wouldn't be shocked if not one single manager from 10 years ago remained - certainly the case at Adobe and Avid. The most stable management team at all of the big 4 A's is FCP!

While I don't have anything to say about the Smoke announcement, I can tell you for a fact that they're swinging for the fences in ways you've never seen before. You'll decide for yourself if they've hit it out if the park or it dies on the warning track. But as you've heard from the people who've seen it, you WILL be talking about it.


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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:29:13 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Respectfully, re comments here and elsewhere about what Autodesk did 10 years ago, that's irrelevant, SEVERAL lifetimes ago."

Respectfully, not to me. It will forever be one of my life's small pleasures to constantly remind anyone, anywhere and anytime, what a distasteful experience it was to deal with Autodesk / Discreet. If you say I "can't" post these statements on the Cow, I respect that and will stop. If your saying that it's silly ... well I don't mind being a fool; if I can cost that company even 1 sale, then I will be a happy man indeed.

As for comparisons with Avid, Adobe, etc. I wasn't involved in those situations. But if you weren't in the room at NAB several years ago with both the Discreet management and a group of *edit users, and weren't looked straight in the eye as they flat out lied to each and every one of us, and weren't part of the phone calls when they killed the product instead of selling it to either Pinacle or the *edit users group that was trying to buy the rights, then I don't think you know enough to make that comparison.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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David Cherniack
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 8:41:28 pm

Tim, I was in the room that Herb mentions, and you'd have to take a nailgun to my flesh before I'd look at another product from Autodesk.

David
AllinOneFilms.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 8:50:10 pm

Autodesk may be the one company less trustworthy than people feel about Apple these days. At least Final Cut Legacy had a longer run than some excellent Autodesk products. With Autodesk the question is how fast can I learn the product to make as much money as possible before they pull the plug or just let a product wither.

If the entire management team that inflicted damage is gone and the name harbors such resentment, perhaps a new name would help their marketing.Maybe they thought moving from Discreet to Autodesk for their products signified that.



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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 10:36:02 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Maybe they thought moving from Discreet to Autodesk for their products signified that."

Hardly, the EOL came after Autodesk bought Discreet.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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TImothy Auld
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:39:56 pm

Just as respectfully, when a company that - albeit 10 years ago - stranded a bunch of customers appears to be teaming up with another company that just recently stranded a bunch other customers, I think that is relevant. That said I am like most others quite curious. Even if it's the perfect solution I would still weigh the above thought in any decision. I'm not saying it would be a deciding factor but it would be a consideration.

Tim


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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme
on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:02:15 pm

I've been trying to get a good answer on that as well. A guy I know who works at Technicolor uses both and says the Mac works great. I'd like to see some real benchmarks. I have a 12 core Mac and have tried the demo and one thing I noticed is it never seemed to use much of the CPU cores, maybe it relies on the GPU. The thing is I don't think there's any real reason why it has to be slower on a Mac.

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Tim O'Grady
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 14, 2012 at 9:02:55 pm

Have you seen this new features page?
http://area.autodesk.com/smoke2012


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Steve Connor
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 14, 2012 at 9:36:33 pm

[Tim O'Grady] "Have you seen this new features page?
http://area.autodesk.com/smoke2012"


Nicely spotted - Import timelines from FCPX.

So you can now get from FCPX to Resolve, ProTools and Smoke.

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Michael Aranyshev
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 14, 2012 at 10:52:45 pm

There is nothing about editing


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 14, 2012 at 10:55:20 pm

There's the comment in the feature set that says "if you're not editing from scratch" and then goes into import. It implies that one might use it to edit from scratch but nothing about new features though.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 14, 2012 at 11:03:09 pm

I could be wrong, but aren't these Smoke 2012, update 2 plans, or whatever?

I think we will see Smoke 2013 tomorrow, as they have updated the rest of their products like this:

http://area.autodesk.com/flame2012

(don't let the URL fool you)


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Frederic Warren
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:11:59 am

You are right Jeremy. These are the new features for Autodesk Smoke 2012 and the Subscription Advantage Pack 2.

This is not what will be shown Sunday in Vegas.

fred

-----

Frédéric Warren

Product Designer - Flame / Smoke
Autodesk Media & Entertainment


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Bernhard Grininger
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:59:03 am

Hello,

with version numbering Autodesk always is it's time ahead.
Smoke 2012 was the version of 2011...


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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 1:55:17 pm

[Jeremy Garchow] "I think we will see Smoke 2013 tomorrow, as they have updated the rest of their products like [Flame 2013]"

From your link:

Expanded Format Support: Work with more of the latest formats you use every day: MXF XDCam and Apple® QuickTime® H264 export, AAF and FCP X updates, Kona 3G, and ARRI look file support.

FCP X? I didn't know Flame was aimed at prosumers and youtubers. How things do change... ;-)

But seriously though, what in the world is format support for "FCP X updates"? Is that mangled marketing code for FCPXML? If they are supporting it in Smoke they might as well support it in Smoke's big brother.

Best,
Andy


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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:14:36 pm

[Andrew Richards] "Is that mangled marketing code for FCPXML? If they are supporting it in Smoke they might as well support it in Smoke's big brother."

Autodesk already has their wiki up for Flame 2013 and it answered my question. FCP X XML import is a new feature in Flame 2013.

Best,
Andy


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:24:31 pm

[Andrew Richards] "FCP X? I didn't know Flame was aimed at prosumers and youtubers. How things do change... ;-)"

Did someone break their NDA and spill the beans on Flame in the App Store for $299.99 and the new iPad version for $29.99 takes advantage of Retina Display iPads?

Off topic but I heard the FCPX sessions at pre NAB yesterday were standing room only packed. I guess there's not professional interest in it or maybe skateboarders now go to NAB 'cause it's cool.



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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:55:45 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Off topic but I heard the FCPX sessions at pre NAB yesterday were standing room only packed. I guess there's not professional interest in it or maybe skateboarders now go to NAB 'cause it's cool."

.0.4 updates later there is a lot less for the rank and file to find lacking. There will continue to be a vocal group of spurned FCP7 users who make a living on legacy workflows like tape and film (and yes, those are legacy when virtually all core manufacturer support for them has ended) or who just can't forgive Apple's terrible handling of the FCP7 EOL. After all, there are still people sore with Avid all these years and corporate re-orgs later, and Herb is still bitter about Autodesk's killing of *edit. But then legacy FCP always had its detractors as well. Can't please everyone. The guys making a living off film and tape work have to keep on working and they can't just sit still with FCP7 forever. They've got better alternatives now than ever before.

FCPX still has a lot of room for improvement, but not even one year later it is a viable tool for a great many working editors and apparently even a few facilities.

The best thing about all this is the big three A's can all be installed on the same system, use the same hardware, and work with the same formats, all without breaking the bank. Now if we could just get a new Super Mac to host them on....

Best,
Andy


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Steve Connor
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:59:58 pm

[Andrew Richards] ".0.4 updates later there is a lot less for the rank and file to find lacking. There will continue to be a vocal group of spurned FCP7 users who make a living on legacy workflows like tape and film (and yes, those are legacy when virtually all core manufacturer support for them has ended) or who just can't forgive Apple's terrible handling of the FCP7 EOL. After all, there are still people sore with Avid all these years and corporate re-orgs later, and Herb is still bitter about Autodesk's killing of *edit. But then legacy FCP always had its detractors as well. Can't please everyone. The guys making a living off film and tape work have to keep on working and they can't just sit still with FCP7 forever. They've got better alternatives now than ever before.

FCPX still has a lot of room for improvement, but not even one year later it is a viable tool for a great many working editors and apparently even a few facilities.

The best thing about all this is the big three A's can all be installed on the same system, use the same hardware, and work with the same formats, all without breaking the bank. Now if we could just get a new Super Mac to host them on....
"


Very good summary of where we are at the moment Andrew

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Michael Aranyshev
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:09:25 pm

[Andrew Richards] "The guys making a living off film and tape work have to keep on working and they can't just sit still with FCP7 forever. They've got better alternatives now than ever before.
"


The alternatives aren't better. That's the problem.


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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:27:51 pm

[Michael Aranyshev] "The alternatives aren't better. That's the problem."

Better than they used to be, I meant. CS6 and MC6 are a heck of a lot better alternatives for FCP7 users than their respective predecessors. Now you can use the same hardware (AJA, BMD, Matrox) from your FCP7 setup with either of them. That wasn't true evan a year ago (with certain exceptions), and it was even more pronounced before that.

Best,
Andy


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:42:57 pm

[Andrew Richards] "The guys making a living off film and tape work have to keep on working and they can't just sit still with FCP7 forever."

It's not just film and tape -- it's anything that requires conform. This may be irrelevant to some of the editors here, and that's ok, but it is a serious obstacle for others. It's all about workflow.

FCPX is not an online editor. As color and finishing tools like Resolve and Smoke add their own support for FCPXML, and as third parties like Marquis Broadcast add support for audio post, though, FCPX becomes an increasingly viable offline editor in more complex workflows.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:00:46 pm

[Walter Soyka] "FCPX is not an online editor. "

Needs more XML development to get there. At least in the onlines I've been around, audio came in as stems, so FCPX can support that now via roles. I'm aware there are workflows where the audio comes back more granularly, but that isn't universal. With enough XML info available, the color specs from something like Resolve could be sent back to FCPX as XML color data per clip (they have in common color handling capabilities in terms of fidelity, as I understand it, which may well be an incomplete understanding).

The big upside is that products like Resolve and Smoke have been quick to support FCPXML, so it bodes well for future support as that interchange format matures.

Best,
Andy


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:47:53 pm

[Andrew Richards] "There will continue to be a vocal group of spurned FCP7 users"

What I find bothersome about that group is that many INSIST FCPX is not "Professional." I've been working in post for over 30 years, used Avid for over 10 of those and knew it well enough to be both engineer and trainer, used FCP legacy for a decade as well and I find FCPX workflow a major improvement (and a belief that Apple will improve it further).

[Andrew Richards] "legacy workflows like tape and film (and yes, those are legacy when virtually all core manufacturer support for them has ended)"

Admittedly there are facilities with vast tape libraries. It's not difficult to bring things in as files with today's video i/o devices and accompanying software. Those same tools can get you back to tape (HDCAM) for delivery. I might guess a few are grumbling about the inability to batch capture from tape to timeline or go back to tape from timeline with an insert edit to replace a shot for example. For the former I'd personally recommend that one should consider bringing in tapes and archiving as files as needed. I can understand the latter being an issue when you need to replace one shot in a 90 minute show being delivered on HDCAM. I don't think it would be worth Apple's R&D to implement that when, I believe, in a couple of years, file delivery will be taking hold in broadcast. It makes more sense for Apple to focus on complex file export.

[Andrew Richards] "FCPX still has a lot of room for improvement, but not even one year later it is a viable tool for a great many working editors and apparently even a few facilities."

I'm impressed with the speed at which Apple is developing features. I understand the impatience (and some practically can't wait). Even these scant examples are impressive given FCPX's youth.

[Andrew Richards] "The best thing about all this is the big three A's can all be installed on the same system, use the same hardware, and work with the same formats, all without breaking the bank."

It's ironic how it's not longer and either/or situation and people still complain. Even the "one person band" can buy all three.

[Andrew Richards] "Now if we could just get a new Super Mac to host them on...."

I suspect that's coming but, once again, many will likely grumble because they'll come up with a situation were it wont work. More recently I'm thinking that the "pizza box" I had been describing might not be the way Apple goes. It could be an iMacPro much like HP's Z1 with Xeon's in an all in one. I'm not crazy about the Z1 specs though at the moment.



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David Roth Weiss
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:50:50 pm

[Andrew Richards] "The best thing about all this is the big three A's can all be installed on the same system, use the same hardware, and work with the same formats, all without breaking the bank."

That might be "the best thing" about this, but can also be viewed as an example of the worst thing.

Watch the annual Pre NAB Editor's Lounge video, and you'll see a discussion on this very subject. It is pointed out clearly that hourly rates are directly proportional to the cost of the tools used. So, exactly how editors and/or editing facilities can generate the income necessary to stay afloat in the years ahead is a huge question we all need to think about.

David Roth Weiss
ProMax Systems
Burbank
DRW@ProMax.com
http://www.ProMax.com
Sales | Integration | Support


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Steve Connor
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:01:25 pm

[David Roth Weiss] "t is pointed out that clearly that hourly rates are directly proportional to the cost of the tools used, so exactly how editors and/or editing facilities can generate the income necessary to stay afloat in the years ahead is a huge question we all need to think about."

So perhaps it would have been better if we all had to buy $30,000 Avid Systems therefore we could charge more?

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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David Roth Weiss
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:11:02 pm

[Steve Connor] "So perhaps it would have been better if we all had to buy $30,000 Avid Systems therefore we could charge more?"

Precisely Steve!

As someone on the panel pointed out yet again, there are millions more writing today because word processors have made it so easy, but how many more great writers are there?

All we really know about the impact of the democratization of video is that it has created more filmmakers, not necessarily better filmmakers. And, hourly rates, across the board, have dropped precipitously - whether that's good or bad depends entirely upon your perspective.

David Roth Weiss
ProMax Systems
Burbank
DRW@ProMax.com
http://www.ProMax.com
Sales | Integration | Support


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:28:14 pm

I was senior editor at a facility that didn't move to NLEs (Avid) when they matured, precisely because of that. All those facilities are gone. You can't pad your hourly rate primarily because of gear. Personally I think that's a good thing. Overhead is VERY LOW now comparatively. If one's business model is done through padding because of gear, it's a poor business model. BTW I think we'll continue to see the decline in facilities as they have existed. This can actually mean MORE income for the individual if they know what they're doing (both skills and business model).



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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:05:34 pm

[David Roth Weiss] "Watch the annual Pre NAB Editor's Lounge video, and you'll see a discussion on the subject. It is pointed out clearly that hourly rates are directly proportional to the cost of the tools used, so exactly how editors and/or editing facilities can generate the income necessary to stay afloat in the years ahead is a huge question we all need to think about."

That is a bad pricing model. As Philip Hodgetts is fond of saying, sell your talent, not your tools. Do clients really have such low standards that broader access to tools and a lower cost of entry for said tools means they don't care about the quality of the work?

Best,
Andy


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David Roth Weiss
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:19:15 pm

[Andrew Richards] "That is a bad pricing model. As Philip Hodgetts is fond of saying, sell your talent, not your tools. "

That pricing model is no longer chosen by the seller, but by the buyer.

And, while Phil offers great advice above, unfortunately his reality does not always line up with the reality of the industry.

Phil and I discuss this stuff whenever we see one another, and I'd say that both of us tend to call every discussion a draw.

David Roth Weiss
ProMax Systems
Burbank
DRW@ProMax.com
http://www.ProMax.com
Sales | Integration | Support


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:30:43 pm

[David Roth Weiss] "That pricing model is no longer chosen by the seller, but by the buyer."

I understand, but doesn't that mean that either the buyer is willing to settle for a lesser product or that the truly qualified sellers are selling themselves short thinking they can only compete on price?

Web designers, authors, graphic artists, and many other creative disciplines seem to thrive without cost-prohibitive tools to justify their rates. Why is post different? Is it because post put so much justification into the cost of the tools of the trade for so long?

Best,
Andy


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:36:56 pm

I suspect those vested in facilities are finding that their business models aren't working as well and will continue to decline.

Personally I think the newer and better model might be better described as collaborative individuals. That certainly has its own hurdles but things are moving in that direction though.

Part of it may be that, these days, facility on site collaboration is probably one of the biggest expenses. It certainly seems more expensive than the create tools. This means an individual with the same tools and possibly lower real estate costs as well, can do the same work (theoretically because there's skill sets involved as well).



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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:19:02 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Part of it may be that, these days, facility on site collaboration is probably one of the biggest expenses. It certainly seems more expensive than the create tools. This means an individual with the same tools and possibly lower real estate costs as well, can do the same work (theoretically because there's skill sets involved as well).
"


But in series television, on-site collaboration is often absolutely necessary, or at least extremely beneficial--and well worth what a facility provides. Just think of it as augmented office space.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:29:08 pm

[Chris Harlan] "But in series television, on-site collaboration is often absolutely necessary, or at least extremely beneficial--and well worth what a facility provides. Just think of it as augmented office space."

And those clients are certainly willing to pay the price. Absolutely.
What portion of the entire "professional" video market is that?
Is that market growing or shrinking absolutely?
Is that market growing or shrinking relatively?
(It's possible it's growing absolutely but shrinking relatively not that I know for sure)



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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:58:10 pm

[Craig Seeman] "And those clients are certainly willing to pay the price. Absolutely.
What portion of the entire "professional" video market is that?"


I suppose it is where you are. Where I live and work, it is a major part of the professional video market. And, for many attendees of NAB it is also a major part of their market.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 7:15:35 pm

[Chris Harlan] "I suppose it is where you are. Where I live and work, it is a major part of the professional video market. And, for many attendees of NAB it is also a major part of their market."

"the market" not quite. The Market is much bigger. Broadcasting is a niche and even if it's growing, the rest of the Market is growing bigger and faster.

This means if you're a tool maker, whether it's hardware or software, you have to make smart business decisions regarding your R&D resources and the ROI on your development.

In fact, from everything I read (I wish I could pull up the articles) NAB as in the actual National Association of Broadcasters, has acknowledged this issue and the show itself is in the beginnings of transformation as I've heard.

It's not about "where I am" unless you mean planet Earth or maybe you believe Hollywood will sustain an entire hardware and software industry.



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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 7:45:01 pm

Craig, your arguments are all over the place. Its like trying to discuss something with water. We were talking about facilities and the value of on-site collaboration.

[Craig Seeman] ""the market" not quite. The Market is much bigger. Broadcasting is a niche and even if it's growing, the rest of the Market is growing bigger and faster.
"


This whole thread is taking place in relation to NAB. Can't you EVER give the "Broadcasting is a niche" thing a rest. Plus, how can you possibly disagree with me when I say that in Los Angeles it is "a"--not "THE," but "a" major part of the professional video market. I mean, really? That's a laugh.

[Craig Seeman] "This means if you're a tool maker, whether it's hardware or software, you have to make smart business decisions regarding your R&D resources and the ROI on your development.
"


Yeah. And some tools are specialized. And some tools are for everybody. And some people guess wrong. And some people guess right. Some times all you need is a laptop battery. And sometimes you need three or four generator trucks. Thank God there are people making both. A Sportsvision package is extremely expensive. Are you suggesting that they are not making money by catering to a particular niche?

[Craig Seeman] "In fact, from everything I read (I wish I could pull up the articles) NAB as in the actual National Association of Broadcasters, has acknowledged this issue and the show itself is in the beginnings of transformation as I've heard.
"


I don't even know what that means. Of course they are adapting. They've been adapting regularly. They adapted with cable. They adapted with satellite. They adapted with IPTV. And they'll keep on adapting. or, they'll become useless. I don't get your point.

[Craig Seeman] "It's not about "where I am" unless you mean planet Earth or maybe you believe Hollywood will sustain an entire hardware and software industry.
"


No, but there are unique needs that will be met in unique ways. And, when somebody can do in AE what someone can do with a Flame, with the same turn around time, then that will be the end of Flame. When some future Adobe product is able to allow you to do to a live football game what a Sportsvision system can do, then its time to retire Sportsvision.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 8:04:58 pm

Much of this branch of this thread is about pricing and facilities. That's changing. NAB (the Association) seems to be acknowledging that. Yes NAB the association that puts on the event we're discussing.

[Chris Harlan] "I don't even know what that means. Of course they are adapting. They've been adapting regularly. They adapted with cable. They adapted with satellite. They adapted with IPTV. And they'll keep on adapting. or, they'll become useless. I don't get your point."

And there's a huge number of companies that have nothing to do with "Broadcasting" entering those markets.

Broadcasting is a shrinking portion of a growing market for professional content creation and delivery.



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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 8:14:57 pm

[Craig Seeman] "And there's a huge number of companies that have nothing to do with "Broadcasting" entering those markets."

Sure. Granted. No duh. But I'm not arguing with you about that. You are arguing with yourself, as if this is some sort of "all or nothing" adventure.

[Craig Seeman] "Broadcasting is a shrinking portion of a growing market for professional content creation and delivery.
"


That's just weird Algebra. You seem to be reaching for some grander point in some sort of imagined war.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 8:50:25 pm

[Chris Harlan] "That's just weird Algebra. You seem to be reaching for some grander point in some sort of imagined war."

Real war as the hardware and software developers have to figure out how to survive. Blackmagic is an interesting example as they have very professional products like Resolve, things like their ATEM switchers, low cost video i/o. The have software and hardware that works for the one person shop and can fit into the facility.

As time goes on, we're going to see shows produced going straight to Netflix or Youtube, etc, as they venture into original content and the type of facility that never has to deliver to "Broadcaster" or deal with a "transmitter" or even traditional Cable. The needs of the content creators may have significant differences.

We're seeing the beginning of LIVE online programing as well with HuffPost developing an online live news format. The creation and delivery workflow may be very different.

It's not that the number of traditional broadcaster will shrink but they will be a smaller portion of the total picture and if you're developing hardware and software, you might be targeting that market (Blackmagic is for example).

On site collaboration, I think, will play a smaller role. It's for these very reasons that companies such as Avid are probably at least toying with Cloud collaboration. Down the road it may be bigger than the need for Unity (in its current form).



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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 9:58:07 pm

[Craig Seeman] "As time goes on, we're going to see shows produced going straight to Netflix or Youtube, etc, as they venture into original content and the type of facility that never has to deliver to "Broadcaster" or deal with a "transmitter" or even traditional Cable. "

We'll see these shows produced and they'll be on Netflix and no one will watch them.

I've heard this over and over again and it never happens, just like the whole revolutionary idea of "direct to video" features that went straight to DVD without a theatrical release. It didn't work. I have no doubt Netflix and others will be try it, but, for now, it won't work. It sounds so logical that it should work but that's only because you grossly misunderstand the nature of marketing and distribution, which is what the feature business is all about. It has nothing to do with the ease of production and very little with the ease of presentation. It's all about creating demand for specific content, and neither Youtube, Netflix or any other pure internet company has the tools or ability to do that.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Steve Connor
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:06:07 pm

http://magazine.creativecow.net/article/walter-biscardi-yes-autodesk-smoke-...

Seems like "wow" was right!

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:09:50 pm

[Steve Connor] "Seems like "wow" was right!"

Indeed!

Also --

http://magazine.creativecow.net/article/nab-2012-autodesk-unveils-a-new-smo...

I'll quote this for Craig:

Additionally, Autodesk also dramatically lowered the system requirements for Smoke, which saves additional money. With Apple's Thunderbolt-enabled technology, the new Smoke can be used on iMacs and even laptops. "The hardware cost of entry has been lowered to platforms costing under $8K," says Hamaker. "There's no need for a significant investment in hardware."


Do you still think Autodesk has insider knowledge of new, powerful Macs? Maybe the iMac will be the new top of the line.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Steve Connor
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:13:49 pm

It won't ship until the Fall, but according to the other article a pre-release will be available from june

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:17:12 pm

[Steve Connor] "It won't ship until the Fall, but according to the other article a pre-release will be available from june"

And at $3495.

I was thinking about buying Smoke last year. I think now I'd be pretty grumpy if I had.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:25:12 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I was thinking about buying Smoke last year. I think now I'd be pretty grumpy if I had."

Same with a Symphony?

Resolve?

Teranex?

Whatever new and specialized hardware/software that's has serious price cuts lately? It happens.

I hope this Smoke works out. It seems like it would be a great fit for us.

This plus fcpx getting camera native support. A 4k modular Varicam. Af100 codec update. Arriraw native. So many updates, so little time.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 12:23:58 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "Same with a Symphony? Resolve? Teranex? Whatever new and specialized hardware/software that's has serious price cuts lately? It happens."

Oh, I know it happens. But how would your clients feel if they asked you for a bid on a project that was a little bit more involved than the last one you did with them, and you came back to them with a price that was a quarter of what they paid before? They might have been grumpy, too.

I wasn't sure that Smoke at $15K was a good value for my business. If I had been sure, I would have bought it. I wouldn't have been happy that I could have gotten it for almost $12,000 less a year later unless it had earned that money back already, though I don't think I would have quite been up to a Herb level of upset.

It's awkward to slash your pricing. You need to win new customers, but you can't risk alienating your existing customers.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 12:27:31 am

[Walter Soyka] "It's awkward to slash your pricing. You need to win new customers, but you can't risk alienating your existing customers."

As Michael G. points out, it will be interesting to see how they deal with folks who purchased in the last quarter or half year.


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 12:48:36 am

[Walter Soyka] "It's awkward to slash your pricing. You need to win new customers, but you can't risk alienating your existing customers."

It's a crazy world out there.

Clients rarely call and say, "can you charge us more"? They usually do want more for less.

Do you think that the price drop will alienate current customers? Won't current customers benefit from this, too?

I don't understand. This is a good thing, isn't it? If the new design is better than the old, won't those efficiencies carry over to existing users? Different isn't always better, but better is better. There are Smoke users in this very thread who saw the new version and didn't seem to disappointed with this direction, but maybe they are?

If you bought Smoke for $15k, then you must know that it was worth it and could make money on it. Are you saying they can't make money on a $4k version?


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:11:50 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "I don't understand. This is a good thing, isn't it? If the new design is better than the old, won't those efficiencies carry over to existing users? Different isn't always better, but better is better. There are Smoke users in this very thread who saw the new version and didn't seem to disappointed with this direction, but maybe they are?"

All I was trying to say was that I have been seriously considering Smoke this year, but I'm glad I didn't just buy it at the much higher price.

I think this is a good thing all around. I am really, really excited.


[Jeremy Garchow] "If you bought Smoke for $15k, then you must know that it was worth it and could make money on it. Are you saying they can't make money on a $4k version?"

Right -- but for my business, it would have been a stretch at $15K that may not have paid for itself in the first year. I've been doing some training on Smoke, but I would have had to get some serious (unbillable) time in the chair with it before I could use it to its full benefit and really start selling it to my clients.

I think that they will sell a lot more licenses at $3500 than they will at $15,000 -- especially with all the improvements.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:05:28 am

[Walter Soyka] "Right -- but for my business, it would have been a stretch at $15K that may not have paid for itself in the first year. I've been doing some training on Smoke, but I would have had to get some serious (unbillable) time in the chair with it before I could use it to its full benefit and really start selling it to my clients."

But you didn't buy it, right? I'm sure there was good reason. ;)

It was a bit too much for us as well. And I'm sure the learning curve is bit steep, but I enjoy those challenges, it makes me better and keeps things fresh.

What I also like about it is that it will conform from almost anything. So even if all of us aren't editing on it all the time, it could take the place of our Color workflow, and perhaps some AE, but not all AE.

I am also curious about audio and if it is compatible with metaSAN.

Jeremy


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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:55:19 pm

It looks like Batch is kind of in there. And I'm with you I was considering buying it too glad I waited. My condolences to those who paid the $17K.

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:59:55 pm

[Robert Brown] "My condolences to those who paid the $17K."

I'm feeling that way a wee bit over the Avid/Symphony cross-grade, and we're only talking about an extra grand. I'm pretty sure that if I'd bought Smoke 6 months ago, I'd be muttering to myself aloud right now.


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Michael Gissing
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:25:08 pm

[Robert Brown] "My condolences to those who paid the $17K."

Surely the first test of how Autodesk treats customers will be how they deal with this inequity. Obviously a free upgrade for anyone who bought a full system in the past six months is just the beginning.

Although impressed by Walter's excitement, The other issue is the rolling costs of owning Smoke. It used to bug me that AVID charged ongoing upgrade fees for basic point upgrades or bug fixes. A friend just installed old Smoke on Mac and I will be watching very closely how little guys, in one man shops like his, are going to be treated.

That said it does look like a 'blow the doors off' jump and is exactly the sort of finish tool that I was hoping for and CS6 also promises in a more modular form.


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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:40:57 pm

[Michael Gissing] "Surely the first test of how Autodesk treats customers will be how they deal with this inequity. Obviously a free upgrade for anyone who bought a full system in the past six months is just the beginning.
"


Good point.


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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 12:50:45 am

[Michael Gissing] "Although impressed by Walter's excitement, The other issue is the rolling costs of owning Smoke. It used to bug me that AVID charged ongoing upgrade fees for basic point upgrades or bug fixes. A friend just installed old Smoke on Mac and I will be watching very closely how little guys, in one man shops like his, are going to be treated."

Yeah I wouldn't quite say it changes everything but it changes a lot. I think the real pressure is on Adobe. I've been doing some stuff in PPro 5.5 with AVCHD and the experience has been terrible really. Crashes, mysterious pauses, the monitors freeze, it's hard getting it to just play back without skipping. And I can never figure out where the auto-save folder is as it seems to move, and BTW auto-save will stop whatever you are doing including just playing back, hopefully they fixed that. All in all it still seems like a toy compared to Avid on which I'm doing at another gig and coming from FCP, Avid is now my editor of choice.

But in the end it's all quite interesting and it's a buyers market. And I think if you do a lot of green screening, and comping Smoke could be the ticket. I use Smoke but still prefer AE for motion graphics.

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:17:57 pm

Heck. Yes.


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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 10:32:30 pm

[Herb Sevush] "It sounds so logical that it should work but that's only because you grossly misunderstand the nature of marketing and distribution, which is what the feature business is all about. It has nothing to do with the ease of production and very little with the ease of presentation. It's all about creating demand for specific content, and neither Youtube, Netflix or any other pure internet company has the tools or ability to do that."

YUP. In all caps.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:42:20 pm

[Herb Sevush] "We'll see these shows produced and they'll be on Netflix and no one will watch them."

I understand Lillyhammer is doing well for Netflix.
Some of the shows have major A list talent.
There's been some interesting trade magazine articles about this and a few other shows.
One big savings is in marketing. They don't need to do a big marketing push to a targeted and competitive time slot. Also because of the economics around competitive time slots (or lack thereof online), shows have a much longer time to develop a viable audience.

see this
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1958961/
and in the LA Times
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/06/entertainment/la-et-lilyhammer-2012...

Yahoo is doing this as well
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-plesser/yahoo-taps-top-hollywood-_b_9763...

As is AOL
http://corp.aol.com/2011/10/03/aol-video-announces-original-video-slate-of-...

BTW AOL owns HuffPost so they're also behind taking that to Live Streaming News.

Hulu as well
http://mashable.com/2010/02/23/if-i-can-dream-premiere/

and apparently a hail mary play from MySpace with support from Fox Digital
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/myspace-fox-digital-wolfpack-reseda-2...

Lillyhammer is the fastest big hit I know of so far. Like anything else some shows will make it and others fail. The big savings in marketing is one of the incentives though.

If we go deeper into this it might be worth starting a separate thread. I think the biggest technical impacts are the method of delivery and time frames as the "rush to air" during a "season" isn't quite the same.

Apparently it's done well enough that there's more original programming on the way.



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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:54:20 am

[Craig Seeman] "Lillyhammer is doing well for Netflix."

Lillyhammer was a series produced by and for Norwegian television that Netflix picked up. It was not produced by or for Netflix.

[Craig Seeman] "Some of the shows have major A list talent."

"A" list talent is not the be all and end all for mass market distribution. It's one of many ingredients. Variety box office charts are often headed by films with no names whatsoever. The films make the stars as often as it works the other way around.

[Craig Seeman] "One big savings is in marketing. They don't need to do a big marketing push to a targeted and competitive time slot."

Any saving in marketing will be reflected in a failure to reach a large audience. There is no profitability in niche marketing for films, the basic costs are too high and need to be amortized over mass audiences. Movies are not songs. Your underestimating the commitment an audience needs to make to sit still for a 90 minute or longer film. To get them to make that commitment takes a lot of marketing. Much of that marketing for films is amplified by things like movie reviews, theater marquis, Oscar and other award ceremonies, movie posters and trailers, all of which come free to a theatrical release and are unavailable to Netflix or Youtube.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 4:35:44 am

As far as US audience is concerned Lillyhammer only appears on Netflix and it's a TV series, not a feature film. The marketing approach for this is a lot less expensive, hence easier for it to turn a profit. As per my links, there's a lot of companies that think this is a viable market.



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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:16:11 pm

[Craig Seeman] "As far as US audience is concerned Lillyhammer only appears on Netflix and it's a TV series, not a feature film"

Below is a quote from one of your posts that started this mini-thread.

"As time goes on, we're going to see shows produced going straight to Netflix or Youtube, etc, as they venture into original content and the type of facility that never has to deliver to "Broadcaster" or deal with a "transmitter" or even traditional Cable."

In what way does Lillyhammer match this criteria. It didn't go straight to Netflix and it was delivered to a broadcaster.

Netflix is just an ancillary market for Lillyhammer. Netflix had been doing this sort of thing on DVD since it's inception. What's new here?

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:22:27 pm

[Herb Sevush] "In what way does Lillyhammer match this criteria. It didn't go straight to Netflix and it was delivered to a broadcaster."

As far as the US market all they saw was a web series.
They found a marketing strategy that works for building a profitable audience. They are now investing in programing as are MANY other companies to continue that strategy.



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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:37:46 pm

[Craig Seeman] "As far as the US market all they saw was a web series."

Which totally evades the question. You put up certain criteria -

"As time goes on, we're going to see shows produced going straight to Netflix or Youtube, etc, as they venture into original content and the type of facility that never has to deliver to "Broadcaster" or deal with a "transmitter" or even traditional Cable."

1) - "Straight to Netflix"
2) - "never has to deliver to "Broadcaster"

You set these criteria up to talk about new production outlets where producers wouldn't be bound by older broadcast and theatrical requirements. Lillyhammer is none of those. It is a foreign produced broadcast TV series.

If you're new revelation is that it's often cheap to pick-up foreign produced TV series for distribution in the US - well whoop de doo, welcome to the world of theatrical distribution, and why bother to talk about this as though it's something new. Netflix has been doing this for years on DVD.

What is new is that Google / Youtube is trying to set up Internet TV "channels" with honest to goodness new programming made specifically for this market. I know producers who've been bidding on projects with them . I think this is a premature idea and will fail. But Lillyhammer has nothing to do with this at all.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:06:00 pm

[Herb Sevush] "You set these criteria up to talk about new production outlets where producers wouldn't be bound by older broadcast and theatrical requirements. Lillyhammer is none of those. It is a foreign produced broadcast TV series. "

Please read all the links I posted and there are many more.
Given the marketing approach and success in the US market, Netflix is sinking money into production. Many other online companies are doing the same. That the show came from a foreign market has NO BEARING on the success of the marketing and the profitability to Netflx. They, and all the other companies doing this, have likely run the numbers and have found if they FUND the production and had the same success, it would be profitable.



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Herb Sevush
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 4:52:03 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Netflix is sinking money into production."

So I've heard, I'm just asking how does that apply to Lillyhammer - did Netflix supply up-front money for production in order to buy streaming rights? If not, all they did was buy ancillary rights to a foreign TV series.

[Craig Seeman] "That the show came from a foreign market has NO BEARING on the success of the marketing and the profitability to Netflx. "

If the show weren't foreign it wouldn't have been cheap to pick up. It's precisely because the series didn't incur the expense of an American release that Netflix could pick it up.

[Craig Seeman] "They, and all the other companies doing this, have likely run the numbers and have found if they FUND the production and had the same success, it would be profitable."

Your not getting the point. It's only profitable, no matter who is funding it, if the initial run is for broadcast. That initial broadcast run, or theatrical if we talk about movies, is what pays for the production, allowing ancillary market profits to exist. This still means the productions require "broadcast" standard workflows.

I need an example of a successful Netflix only production, no broadcast or theatrical release anywhere, before I think there's any validity to this market. The fact that companies are throwing money at it means absolutely nothing; companies have been chasing this mirage for years. I would be happy to live off a percentage of the money that's been poured down that particular toilet.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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David Jahns
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 19, 2012 at 8:49:11 pm

Guys - how about starting a new thread when you veer off topic this deeply? 60 messages ago, we were talking about Smoke, not Netflix & The Future of Media Distribution.

I try to follow the discussions I'm participating in, and I've 2 gazillion email messages that are not about the topic I am interested in. Thanks.

David Jahns
---
Joint Editorial
Portland, OR


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 19, 2012 at 8:51:43 pm

[David Jahns] "Guys - how about starting a new thread when you veer off topic this deeply? 60 messages ago, we were talking about Smoke, not Netflix & The Future of Media Distribution."

You must not hang around here too often. ;)


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David Jahns
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 19, 2012 at 9:04:13 pm

You are right. I have been notably absent for the last 6 months or so, when I moved on from FCP.

Good to see you guys keeping up the debate/outrage/whatever... ;-)

David Jahns
---
Joint Editorial
Portland, OR


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 19, 2012 at 9:16:26 pm

It could be that some are just incensed or inflamed about Smoke. Some might think the price point is indicative of changes in post and facility based workflow.



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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 19, 2012 at 9:08:21 pm

And here I was thinking that the subject was about this Smoke filled Room errr Forum.



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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:13:27 pm

[Andrew Richards] "Why is post different? Is it because post put so much justification into the cost of the tools of the trade for so long?
"


In my world it often comes down to budget and deadline. If the budget is there and turnaround is critical, networked, near-realtime machines and a team of supporters is/are also critical. Because these high-priced setups are relatively few and far-between, they are rightfully able to charge an arm and a leg. Of course, they don't get used as often, either. The same quality of work can be done with a handful of folks with Maya and AE, but NOT with the time constraints. In my neck of the woods, I'd say that for about a decade now, the clock has been the major arbiter of equipment choice.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:31:35 pm

[Andrew Richards] "That is a bad pricing model. As Philip Hodgetts is fond of saying, sell your talent, not your tools. Do clients really have such low standards that broader access to tools and a lower cost of entry for said tools means they don't care about the quality of the work?"

It's not that higher equipment prices allowed higher rates and that people were making huge margin on their gear, per se; it's that higher equipment prices created barriers to entry for post-production. With those barriers tumbling down, massive amounts of new entrants are able to flood the market. With that increased supply, competition is pushing rates down.

Some of that new competition, with very lower overhead and little business experience, set their rates at unsustainably low levels. Most of these businesses will fail (or will be part-time businesses that do not provide livable wages for their owner/operators), but because post is sexy, the failed businesses are quickly replaced with equally unsustainable businesses.

Some clients value quality and are willing to pay for it; others either don't care or are unable to see the difference or added value, and are willing to burn through preposterously low-priced editors.

See Walter Biscardi's blog post For now, editing is a commodity and less a craft [link]. It's a great article that positions this as a trend that may ultimately reverse as clients and the industry learn.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Steve Connor
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:34:43 pm

[Walter Soyka] "Some clients value quality and are willing to pay for it; others either don't care or are unable to see the difference or added value, and are willing to burn through preposterously low-priced editors."

I would imagine the Printing and Publishing industry had a similar thing when DTP arrived.

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:47:11 pm

[Steve Connor] "I would imagine the Printing and Publishing industry had a similar thing when DTP arrived."

Indeed.

One interesting thing is that with both DTP and video, both supply and demand grew.

Before DTP, only the biggest clients with the deepest pockets could afford custom design and printing. Video is working the same way; increased supply and lower costs have made video more affordable for a greater number of potential clients.

In other words, the pie is growing, but a lot of the players are getting smaller pieces.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:37:08 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Off topic but I heard the FCPX sessions at pre NAB yesterday were standing room only packed. I guess there's not professional interest in it or maybe skateboarders now go to NAB 'cause it's cool."

I imagine the Adobe and Autodesk booths will be pretty well-attended, too. Avid might get some attention given their slashed Symphony pricing, too.

These are tumultuous times in post. For the last few years, the industry was trending toward NLE consolidation. Apple, in disrupting themselves, also disrupted that industry trend. People are reconsidering their workflows and re-evaluating their NLEs. Different kinds of editors will likely choose different primary NLEs. And since costs are down and hardware support is up, many of us are investing in multiple NLEs so we can handle whatever comes in the door.

Lest we forget, FCPX earned the poor reputation you're knocking. Apple showed a sneak peak at NAB, then released a product that was incompatible with existing broadcast workflows, but featured an export to YouTube button.

But that was then -- why wouldn't there be interest now? The updates have addressed a lot of early concerns about FCPX. There are very few people suggesting that FCPX has no future whatsoever, and I think anyone would be foolish to write it off today.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Craig Seeman
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:07:47 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I imagine the Adobe and Autodesk booths will be pretty well-attended, too. Avid might get some attention given their slashed Symphony pricing, too."

I don't doubt it. My point is that FCPX is under consideration. It's not, as some people claim, out of the question for "professionals." Obviously there's a significant portion of the professional community INTERESTED in FCPX. It's not being dismissed out of hand.

[Walter Soyka] "But that was then -- why wouldn't there be interest now? The updates have addressed a lot of early concerns about FCPX."

But there were a lot of people who refused to believe that Apple would develop it this quickly or even develop at all to meet the needs of professionals. Many dismissed any growth potential at all.



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Walter Soyka
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:55:57 pm

[Craig Seeman] "My point is that FCPX is under consideration. It's not, as some people claim, out of the question for "professionals." Obviously there's a significant portion of the professional community INTERESTED in FCPX. It's not being dismissed out of hand."

Everything is up for consideration. The NLE market is up for grabs, and I don't think there will be just one winner.

And I agree with you that FCPX is well worth interest and considerations. There are markets it can (and should) win.


[Craig Seeman] "But there were a lot of people who refused to believe that Apple would develop it this quickly or even develop at all to meet the needs of professionals. Many dismissed any growth potential at all."

You keep referring to fast development, but I think it might be late development. I suspect that Apple would have rather released 10.0.3 as the first version. I think that all the updates we have seen in the last 9 months have been in the works since before release.

I was skeptical of FCPX's development, but I have been pleasantly surprised so far.

I am still very curious to see what future releases will look like. Aperture saw a lot of quick, big releases early in its life, and then the development of major features slowed dramatically; now it hasn't seen a major release in 2 years. It remains to be seen whether FCPX will develop like FCP or like Aperture.

I am specifically not suggesting that FCPX has no future. I'm just saying that I don't feel I can trust Apple to take care of me like I used to. With respect to Apple, I'm a doubting Thomas now -- I need to see it to believe it.

I do not assume they want to serve all the markets they used to, but I'm still here because I think the product shows promise and I want to see where it goes.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Ben Rojas
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:04:49 pm

So!?!?!?! The smokeischanging.com site is gone and nothing but redirect to usa.autodesk.com!?!?! No Smoke nothing, nada, nico!!! Pretty pissed over here.

Ben Rojas
Editor|Artist|Dir. of Post Production
KSC KREATE
3850 N 28th Ter. Ste. 101
Hollywood, FL. 33020
P. 954.326.7600
F. 954.326.7766
C. 305.301.2771
E. ben.rojas@ksckreate.com
http://www.ksckreate.com


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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:09:49 pm

http://area.autodesk.com/nab2012

Looks like they are webcasting the event today.

Best,
Andy


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Michael Garber
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:12:47 pm

Do you know what time? It says 17 hrs on their page, but that would be 3am pacific time. Odd time to launch a product - even one that's supposedly going to change everything ;)

Michael Garber
5th Wall - a post production company


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Andrew Richards
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:16:32 pm

If it is live, and if I recall correctly, 3pm PDT.

Best,
Andy


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Tim Wilson
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 15, 2012 at 9:46:10 pm

[Craig Seeman] "maybe skateboarders now go to NAB 'cause it's cool."

Don't laugh. It has been true for years. Vegas travel is cheap, passes are free, and there has been an astonishing, and astonishingly growing, percentage of people who are there because they heard they should be.

I've run into bunches of people -- including when I worked in booths for both Apple and Avid -- who had a long way to go before they'd get to a level you'd even call "prosumer." These were "ama-sumers."

And not just skater kids. There's a staggering number of people I call the model railroad crowd. They buy DSLRs and other really, really nice PRO cameras, and NLEs to run on their MacBook PRO computers, or Mac PRO towers...and still spend less than they would have on a basement-size model railroad.

Of course, I worked the Apple booth in 2003, but that's kind of the point. You see the world at NAB through pro-colored glasses, so it looks like a pro-only show. I saw it through "every monkey who walks through the door of the South Hall right next to Starbucks" colored glasses, and I gotta tell ya, I was truly dismayed to see the percentage of pros go down and down and down.

(Usual caveat: speaking only for myself, and nobody I work for now or in the past...but I'm right about this.)


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Robert Brown
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:08:01 am

Yeah I'm done with NAB. I hate Vegas and large crowds with the half hour wait to talk to the rep and you can find out everything you need to know online. Why bother?

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Chris Harlan
Re: Smoke is changing- into Final Cut Extreme- New Features Page?
on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:30:49 am

[Robert Brown] "Yeah I'm done with NAB. I hate Vegas and large crowds with the half hour wait to talk to the rep and you can find out everything you need to know online. Why bother?"

Add to that that Vegas seems to be America's ash tray.


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