What exactly are you trying to do with the shot?
I'm guessing that you are replacing the pockets with some sort of animation, since they put those big orange dots that would be a real pain to remove. Anyways, the first problem I see is the nature of the surface that you are tracking (the curvature of the butts). Whatever surface you put in there will need to be curved to match the shape of each butt. I can't speak for After Effects, but the Smoke doesn't have 3D tracking capabilities, so you will have to compensate for that. So, if you are going to track it in the Smoke, you will have to manually "track" the point as it disappears into the squishy parts.