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Sales of FCPX/ share price

COW Forums : Apple FCPX or Not: The Debate

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Alexander KallasSales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 4:09:41 am

As sales of this product drop away, how will Apple respond?
More EOL software? Watch the toxicity of this direction. Has anyone plotted the share-price of Apple these past weeks?

Cheers
Alexander


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Kevin CannonRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 4:26:57 am

Up 6.4% since launch day?

KC

prehistoricdigital.com
hardworkingpixels.com


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Richard CooperRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 4:33:19 am

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AAPL&t=3m&q=&l=&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-...

Richard Cooper
FrostLine Productions, LLC
Anchorage, Alaska
http://www.frostlineproductions.com


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Andrew StoneRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 4:54:41 am

It is coincidence. I follow Apple stock closely... The stock had gone way down well below "resistance" as the stock people call it, on the 21st. The markets that day had a significant rebound and if you plot the Nasdaq and the Dow against Apple's stock performance you will see it is just following the market, more or less.

Conspiracy doesn't apply here as much fun as that would be.

--
Steadicam & Camera Operator


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Alexander KallasRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 5:12:45 am

Too early to tell? I'll wait and watch....

Cheers
Alexander


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Chris ConleeRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 11:58:49 am

I don't think a single app is going to have a significant impact on Apple one way or the other. Especially since most of the vaunted 2 million+ seats of FCP that were in the field had never been paid for.

Chris


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Clayton BurkhartRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 6:16:02 am

I actually own quite a lot of stock in Apple. I was lucky enough to buy it at 1/10th of the price it is today. However, I have recently thought of selling it because of this debacle.

Why?

Not because pro-editing matters much as a market for Apple, but rather because the roll-out was so clearly mismanaged and represented such a total disconnect from it's announced target community at NAB (even if it's true target is the consumer), that I see internal problems. No management team worth it's salt would intentionally piss off it's client base in such an abrupt manner. Even if that represented a small portion of their market. Regularly returning dollars are still dollars regardless of how fractional that part of the market is for them. Remember they have carefully cultivated this market for more than 10 years.

Further, my experience tells me that when a company overextends itself it forgets the marketing base that helped it arrive at it's golden moment. In this case media professionals who helped give it a reputation and coolness factor, seem to have been forgotten. If that is the case it won't be long before Apple has such a mainstream presence that the coolness factor will have moved on as well. In a word it will have saturated the market from a branding point of view.

Lastly, it has been suggested that Mac is actually surprised by the backlash. If that is the case it is even more worrying, that reveals more than poor management, it suggests a total disconnect from an intended client base.

Warren Buffett would not be happy.


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Alexander KallasRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 6:28:10 am

Good clear thinking Clayton, a great model for investors in any company ie get in at the bottom, and out when you smell the top of the run.

Cheers
Alexander


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Mitch IvesRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 6:30:15 am

You might be on to something. Right or wrong, like many people, in spite of my best efforts, this debacle has soured me on Apple in general. Not a good thing since I've been buying their products since the 70's (in significant quantities). I decided not to upgrade the laptops as planned. The new Mac Pro (if it had Thunderbolt) was a definite purchase. Not now. I'm also find I'm becoming completely ambivalent on new iPhones and iPads.

I recommend Apple products weekly... Right now that is on hold. I'm not trying to blow this out of proportion, but this screw up makes the MobileMe roll out look like a success by comparison. I'm certain this will end up being a business school case study on how precisely NOT to handle things...

Apples future with less Steve Jobs "hands on day to day" may not be as bright as we had hoped...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.
mitch@insightproductions.com
http://www.insightproductions.com


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Gary PollardRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 7:15:04 am

Personally I have always seen Apple, even with Steve Jobs firmly at the helm, as ruthless and arrogant about end-of-lining software and hardware and not caring much about where that leaves legacy users. When I've said this to people with kinder attitudes to Apple they have argued vociferously with me.

I don't think this happened because he wasn't around. It's history.

____

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"



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John GoddenRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 12:50:50 pm

Exactly!

I'm a LONG time aapl investor and LOVE what Apple has done in regards to FCP. Throw the OLD out and in with the new. The day Apple stops throwing some of its historical customers under the bus is the day I sell my aapl shares.

cheers to the longs
JohnG


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Gary PollardRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 1:30:45 pm

Your shares will be safe as long as there's an endless supply of new rubes with short memories.

____

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"



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Mitch IvesRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 2:42:49 pm

I don't disagree with your logic... it just seems like we have an even bigger void in management these days though. Perhaps it's because they are straddling two worlds... Steve's and whoever is next in line...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.
mitch@insightproductions.com
http://www.insightproductions.com


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Tim WilsonRe: Sales of FCPX/ share price
by on Jul 5, 2011 at 3:52:51 pm

[Mitch Ives] " it just seems like we have an even bigger void in management these days though."

That's the thing. Nobody on Wall St. will care about this unless it affects Apple's bottom line, and I think you'll agree that the net result will be much more money for Apple. At the expense of some customers of FCP 7 of course, but trading off for what is surely a much larger customer base in the future.

The fact is that, on fundamentals alone, Apple is already significantly *under*valued. That's true of a number of stocks in this sector of course -- Microsoft shares are flat on doubled revenue and profits -- which suggests that larger market forces are holding them back. But looking at Apple in isolation (never a good idea with stocks of course), I can imagine that the real drag on upside might be concern with Steve's health, and the succession plan.

The next few months are looking awesome for Apple, with Lion, a new MacBook Air, iPhone 5, a rumored iPad 3 in Q4 (this has been rumored all year, but, frankly, looking more credible from what I read) -- oh yeah, and this insanely hot video software running on iPad (you KNOW it's coming)...

In short, if you can get past issues regarding Steve and the succession plan, I think that this is a fantastic time to buy Apple stock. $400/share seems easily within reach based on today's fundamentals alone. Another couple of quarters with Apple blowing away the number, who knows? Another split?

The concerns you have about FCP 7 for yourself are exactly as legitimate as you think they are. They just won't have any bearing on Apple's course in the market. iPhone 4's antenna issues affected a lot more people, and got a lot more coverage. A year later, the problems are still there! Nobody cares, least of all Wall St. The perception is that Apple can do no wrong...even though every news outlet in the country widely reported that they CAN, and DO.

I don't invest in stocks at all, but I still enjoy keeping up with the market. If I was buying stock though, I'd be making a beeline for Apple. The numbers are the numbers, the perception is the perception....and on Wall St., that can be worth even more.


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