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Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers

COW Forums : Apple FCPX or Not: The Debate

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Craig SeemanPhilip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:50:28 am

Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
http://www.philiphodgetts.com/2012/04/some-final-cut-pro-x-data-points/

I'm not sure if Hodgetts acceptance of things at face leads to an accurate understanding but there are some interesting bits here.

At first I heard it with the generic filter of “Final Cut Pro 7″ meaning all previous seats of Final Cut Pro and I wasn’t prepared to believe that, but it was clarified to be specifically Final Cut Pro 7 and I find that quite believable, as I suspect there was not a really strong take up of Final Cut Pro 7. Still, I think that’s a very healthy milestone as Final Cut Pro X is not yet one year old. (I also think Final Cut Pro X has outsold Final Cut Pro 1 at this time in its roll-out.)

This following bit I think is fuzzy as to what the percentage actually means.

Apple’s market share in the “pro NLE buyers” market (noted above) has dropped. By 3%. From 55% to 52%.

I don't think the following disassociated facts connect. It may well mean that facilities are using a copy here and there to perform a specific function. I seriously doubt FCPX would have 52% of all seats rather than a few copies in 52% of the facilities.

Also it's not clear that the number is specifically FCPX. Many facilities are still on FCP7 or 6 given the comments about the diminished 7 uptake which is believable.

But could it be that only one copy was sold to each facility and that gives them 52% of the “pro” market. I don’t find that particularly credible, given that we know that Bunim Murray alone purchased at least 40 or 50 Media Composer seats in that time.

And the following implies not much for Adobe. Again who knows how they're counting.

The 3% Final Cut Pro X lost in the last year largely went to (no surprise) Media Composer.



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Bobby MoscaRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:25:24 am

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the numbers and methodology were just fine. Craig alluded to the gist, though... the difference between having it and using it.

"I also think Final Cut Pro X has outsold Final Cut Pro 1 at this time in its roll-out."

Please.


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Craig SeemanRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:40:25 am

[Bobby Mosca] "he gist, though... the difference between having it and using it."

There's nothing in there that says one way or the other. It's probably somewhere in between.



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Shane RossRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:58:39 am

I don't recall being polled by anyone about what NLE I use, so where do they get the market share numbers?

Shane
Little Frog Post
Read my blog, Little Frog in High Def


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Chris HarlanRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 3:43:06 am

[Shane Ross] "I don't recall being polled by anyone about what NLE I use, so where do they get the market share numbers?
"


I don't know how accurate their numbers are, but their abstract catches the mood pretty well:

"Nonlinear editing systems (NLEs) will continue to grow over the next three years, in spite of major technological changes that have left many high-end editors bereft, frustrated and storming out of the edit suite. A technologically intensive, changing business model has made nonlinear editing a challenge to both manufacturers and producers, with improvements and re-branding by Apple leaving some seasoned editors profoundly disgusted."


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Craig SeemanRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:33:39 am

[Shane Ross] " don't recall being polled by anyone about what NLE I use, so where do they get the market share numbers?"

Philip's post explains that based on the excerpts from SCRI's methodology. I can pull quote but it's explained in his article which links to SCRIs explanation.



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Andrew KimeryRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 2:01:27 am

I mentioned this in another thread, but w/o seeing more detailed info this doesn't give any real insight into what's going on in the industry NLE-wise. SCRI lists six markets that they look at "...broadcast television stations, cable television stations, post production facilities (video and film), video production and multimedia facilities, corporate and institutional video facilities (government, educational, medical)."

I'd be really interested to see who uses what where and how often (sometimes, all the time, I opened it up once... by mistake).

I mean, heck, Premiere was used in the slimmest of ways on Avatar yet Adobe still crowed about it. If PPro wasn't included w/their CS bundles I doubt anyone would have thought to use it.


-Andrew

2.9 GHz 8-core (4,1), FCP 7.0.3, 10.6.6
Blackmagic Multibridge Eclipse (7.9.5)



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Chris KennyRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 2:04:49 am

[Craig Seeman] "Also it's not clear that the number is specifically FCPX. Many facilities are still on FCP7 or 6 given the comments about the diminished 7 uptake which is believable. "

I'm virtually certain that number includes all versions of FCP. Its primary interest to this discussion is it demonstrates Apple's additions of higher-end features to FCP X is not "too late" -- existing FCP users have either been moving to FCP X or sticking with classic FCP (I would guess mostly the latter) for now. Those still on classic FCP will have to go somewhere eventually, but FCP X's feature set has expanded enough now that it will at least be in the running when they do.

[Craig Seeman] "And the following implies not much for Adobe. Again who knows how they're counting.

The 3% Final Cut Pro X lost in the last year largely went to (no surprise) Media Composer."


This is also good news for Apple; Avid is likely to be a weaker competitor in the long run, meaning it will be easier for Apple to recapture short-term losses to Media Composer than it would be to recapture losses to Premiere.

--
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Joseph OwensRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:08:19 pm

[Chris Kenny] "I'm virtually certain"

!? There's a sworn affadavit.

Third-year engineering students, at least in my day, were subjected to a course called "Statistics and Probability" that helps to ground one in the arcane study of "reliability". Usually the phrase "figures don't lie, but liars can sure figure". My worst subject but left a lasting impression.

Given the sample size of this forum, there are absolutely no grounds to base any decisions on the opinions expressed here -- with a certainty accurate to 100%, 20 times out of 20. I was going to put down something like 98% 19/20, the way you would be any stochastic distribution (pseudo-random), but... to be blunt -- irrelevant.

jPo

You mean "Old Ben"? Ben Kenobi?


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Greg AndonianRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:45:46 am

I seriously doubt FCPX would have 52% of all seats rather than a few copies in 52% of the facilities.

52% of the FCPX "seats" are being used by Apple's case studies!

(bada bump... CHHHH!!!!!)

______________________________________________
"THAT'S our fail-safe point. Up until here, we still have enough track to stop the locomotive before it plunges into the ravine... But after this windmill it's the future or bust."


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Craig SeemanRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:52:59 pm

Philip responded when I asked him about date range and seats vs facilities.
In a world where clicks matter, as a courtesy to Philip I'll post the link to his writing again and you can read what's going on in the comments . . . and bring the conversation back hear.
http://www.philiphodgetts.com/2012/04/some-final-cut-pro-x-data-points/#com...


The period covered wasn’t specified, but I’m pretty sure sales of FCS 3 were pretty slow during early 2011.

This is only new purchases. The other metric covers mixed uses. Number of seats total across all the facility, so Bunim Murray would have counted for 40-50 Media Composer seats, for example.




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Franz BieberkopfRe: Apple Losing NLE Market Share
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:58:39 pm

Craig, Philip,

I really can't believe this fluff made it back onto the board here.


MYSTERY

I'm surprised that Philip would say he "understands the methodology - this seems to be a dubious claim to me along with the the claim that there's a "detailed description" of it, so Philip you'll have to spell out what you mean.

What we know:
- a survey of 1874 "end users" (another page claims 2500).
- by end-users they seem to mean "facilities" ("1874 facilities across all vertical markets" from the scope and methodology page); we don't know what constitutes a "facility" but they talk up how they like to get responses from engineers.
- no mention of what Avid calls "creative enthusiasts"; they seem to be talking about "professional" users only.
- they project out from their surveys using statistical models to come up with an guestimate of the picture of 6 "vertical markets". or something.

So the final numbers are guesses - based on what "model", we don't know.

The 52% market share they claim is "new seats", and only the "pro" market (not all NLE purchases) and does not include all FCPX installs - only installs in "facilities"; further it includes all Apple NLEs so it will include FCP 7 purchases for the period (the last 12 months?).


MARKETING

Anyway quite beyond all this - Apple marketing was faced with a choice between announcing real numbers of real downloads (sales and free trials, which they know) or "pointing to" a survey with vaguely decipherable statistical guesses.

Why would they go with the latter?


MARKET

On the SCRI site, amid all the factual and sparse news announcements of the last year, there is this weird post, essentially one long quote from one user on 2-pop:
http://scri.com/fcp-7-to-x-or-adobe-what-users-are-saying/

The weirdness of that "news" aside, it gives us these quoted figures:
We know that as of NAB Show 2011 FCP had 54% of the market, PPro had only 19%, Avid trailed at 17%, and the remaining 10% were other NLEs (based on data from SCRI’s 2011-2012 NLE Broadcast / Pro Video Report, probably taken from the New York Times Article, “Apple’s Final Cut Is Dead. Long Live Final Cut.”)

So firstly that gives a baseline of how they painted the picture last year.

According to SCRI, last year Apple had 54% of the market. (Note that on Philip's page he says 55% but I'm not sure where that figure comes from.) This year they have 52%.

So Apple is losing market share.



I mean, personally I think we're looking at coffee grounds here, but if these numbers mean anything then surely that is the real headline.


Franz.


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Craig SeemanRe: Apple Losing NLE Market Share
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:11:09 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "I mean, personally I think we're looking at coffee grounds here, but if these numbers mean anything then surely that is the real headline."

Short of paying $1500 for the report, we are looking at coffee grounds. There's a lot that's not being clearly defined. 52% of "something" in broadcast and professional facilities have FCPX installed.

It may well be 52% of seats of it installed . . . along with another NLE of which the other NLE is the one being used day to day.

I keep getting anecdotal information that there are some high end facilities moving to it though. I suspect the total number of seats where FCPX is the predominantly used NLE is small but it is there and the numbers seem to be growing.



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Franz BieberkopfRe: Apple Losing NLE Market Share
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:27:32 pm

[Craig Seeman] "52% of "something" in broadcast and professional facilities have FCPX installed."

Craig,

It is murkier than that.

52% of new installs in some facilities (does that include free trials?). And it includes FCP7 last year.

Except that the 52% is a guess based on a small sample.


Franz.


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Bill DavisRe: Apple Losing NLE Market Share
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:49:23 pm

"Except that the 52% is a guess based on a small sample."

In modern polling, that's not really a small sample at all.

A sample size like that in the hands of a quality polling orgainization should certainly yield dependable results.

Things with much bigger consequences like elections use the same methods to gather actionable intelligence and make plans.

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Franz BieberkopfRe: Apple Losing NLE Market Share
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:00:08 pm

[Bill Davis] "Things with much bigger consequences like elections use the same methods to gather actionable intelligence and make plans."


Bill,

Elections are actually decided on vastly larger polls.

You're right though, analysts in run-ups to elections use much smaller samples. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wildly wrong.

But without knowing the methodology here, we can say nothing about how reliable any of their guesses are.

Further, the survey is divided into 6 markets - that's an average sample of 300 per market.


Franz.


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Craig SeemanRe: Apple Losing NLE Market Share
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:55:54 pm

Not a small sample. Large enough to be very accurate.
http://scri.com/sc_reprt/sc_method.shtml



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Bill DavisRe: Apple Losing NLE Market Share
by on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:33:46 pm

My gut says what most would.

There's absolutely no defensible reason for any facility not to have it installed. The cost is trivial. (probably less than stocking the coffee service for the year) It represents what a dominant player in the NLE space has decided is the future of their pro editing trajectory. If they don't use it as a primary app now, they can let their folks use it as and when it fits a gig while learning about the new interface and the alternative workflows it promotes.

Maybe some client will need them to go participate in a "set-side" edit where X on a laptop kicks butt for something not necessarily "suite centric.

The point is that it's a great tool to have in any kit. Not the only tool. Not necessarily even the best tool for every circumstance. But a powerful, modern Video editing solution that fits well under certain circumstances.

In short, why wouldn't any smart facility not want to have it available?

I own a big stereo. I own an IPod Nano. And I have an iPhone. They all play music really well.

I use the one that fits what I need to do. I don't get caught thinking that the only "proper" way to listen to music is to light up the big family room amps. That was my thinking in my 20s. Not so much now.

FWIW.

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Juan SalvoRe: Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
by on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:55:47 am

The 52% number is new sales. As in not including upgrades and cross grades. So fcpx constitutes half of all full sales in a market where most people are upgrading or cross grading to avid or adobe.

The full license sale is a small sub sample of all sales figures. And sales doesn't mean usage.

Or at least that's what I've inferred.

online editor | colorist | VFX | BD author

http://JuanSalvo.com


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