hello...
well - you can always see what the update is and then not agree to it there and go to the respective website and get the file there...in this case, go to adobe.com and get the latest flash install from them that way?
additional security can also be provided via checksums - some downloads will show you a checksum value on the page, and then once you download the file, you can run the checksum locally to make sure they match - if they do, then the file is unaltered. here's how you do that:
http://www.bresink.de/osx/sha1.html
adobe doesn't offer those, i don't believe, but certainly you would feel better getting it from their site as opposed to the random dialog that pops up, which i do agree is always in theory something that could be replicated...
(but to note, of course - a checksum doesn't help if the site you are on is the hackers to begin with, but if you trust you are on adobe.com (again for example), then it is a useful tool to verify a file to be the same as the one they wanted to give you)
hope that helps!
sitruc