Re: One Year Later, redux: Apple, FCPX and The Perfect Roll-out

[David Roth Weiss] "Then, should Autodesk become the next real powerhouse, the big question will be, will schools across the country want to teach X to aspring legions of future editors? And, will Apple's pro feature set, added to what may become just a pure Youtube NLE, ultimately become the Classic Coke or Edsel as some have prognosticated?"

Has everyone forgotten history so quickly? The original Final Cut Pro initially found its way into the market because it was one of the first NLE products to seriously embrace DV/FireWire -- consumer video technologies that pros initially didn't take seriously (one recalls extensive arguments over the definition of 'broadcast quality').

There is a long-term trend away from high-priced specialty products. Look at the long-term erosion of Avid's market share -- none of the fundamental factors that were responsible for that trend have changed. The idea that a high-end-only product will win the next round of the NLE wars runs contrary to all of this. It's highly unlikely.

Over the next decade, I like FCP X's prospects. FCP X is available for one-click App Store installation at a dramatically lower cost than competing applications. It's easier for new editors to learn. It's built around file-based acquisition and focuses heavily on Internet deliverable formats (causing you to pejoratively imply it might be a "YouTube NLE"). Its UI is based around Internet-age taxonomy -- relationships and tagging. It's designed for a world of speedy laptops that can connect to Thunderbolt storage fast enough to handle even uncompressed HD.

In a way its detractors are right -- FCP X is from a different world than competing NLEs. But that world isn't the consumer market. It's the future. And it's arriving fast.

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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

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