Re: One year later...

One year later it seems clear to me that FCPX is further behind the competition. The past 9 months has seen a lot of improvements but mostly in the area of re establishing functionality that was already there.

The Apple 52% market share stats mean very little in terms of what my sector of the industry is actually doing. If they were true then being at the end of the post pipeline, I would see the flow on effect. Sure I am in a small isolated market, but it used to be 80% FCP, 15% AVID (the rest Adobe) and at the moment it is zero FCPX. You can't have 52% market share and fail to make an impression on my business but so far it is zero, with no-one even asking if I can handle FCPX. But I am a realist and so knowing that FCPX XML is being supported by others is comforting.

This NAB was really about people who could afford to wait being rewarded with Smoke, AVID and CS6 offering more than credible alternatives. I waited and nursed my facility with FCP7 and da Vinci plus Automatic Duck's free tools. The landscape to me is about to change as newer cameras and codecs drive people off FCP7 where they have camped nervously for the past year. I expect the % in one year to be 50% FCP7, 45% AVID/CS6 and 5% others including FCPX. Most who are switching are going to get both AVID & CS6 so I lump them together. I think Walter Soyka is right that people are now looking at owning more than one edit system. That is exactly the feedback that I am getting.

So is FCPX a player? Of course it is but it will be a long slow road back for Apple, partially because of the comparative facility of the software but mostly because of the trust broken. I am most inclined to Smoke for finishing. My clients seem most inclined to a mix of CS6 and AVID (or both) as they slowly change. Also many tell me that they will switch hardware/OS to WIN when it is time to upgrade boxes. I am building a WIN screamer for da Vinci but hope my late 2009 MacPro will work well with Smoke.

I think now that the dust of NAB is settling the big change away from Apple is going to happen. So despite the moves that Apple has made to improve FCPX for the broadcast market, one year later I find them further behind the competition. Ironically I also expect to buy FCPX in the next year as support for editors who will start using it. It will be more like having a plugin or ancillary software on the system to handle the odd client who will bring in a FCPX job and need me to manage the project and output to Smoke/ da Vinci.