Re: The Fog Thickens

[Chris Kenny] "IMO the framing in the discussion of FCP X has always been wrong. It was viewed as an instant failure because it wasn't a drop-in replacement for FCP 7. But it's not FCP 7's successor in any technical sense. It's a new product. FCP X is properly viewed as a promising challenger that needs some time to mature,"

It would seem only "the old guard" insist that it's a failed replacement for FCP7. Of course it's not in heavy use yet, it's new and still under serious (and rapid) development. That there was standing room only crowds during the NAB presentations around it, show serious interest. People are watching the development very closely to determine if/when they can safely jump in.

That there's so much negative response is about currently running facilities who can't consider it . . . currently. It seems all the big A companies have burned people at some point. At the point when one sees a potential ROI they reconsider some years down the road. There's no reason for it to be any different with Apple.


[Chris Kenny] "But -- and I realize that people who've been using Avid products for the last decade or more can't, for the most part, really see this -- Media Composer is virtually impenetrable to new users. We've seen this in-house."

As someone who used Avid for more than 10 years as an editor and later as an engineer and trainer, it's related to why I won't go back. Even knowing it, I found it very "unfriendly" in the way it handled many tasks. Of course right now, without the FCPX being alternative, some are struggling through it again. But just as their profit bump seems to be temporary, I think so to is the interest in Avid in the GROWING market (not the niche). It's one reason (of several) why there's so much interest in Adobe. The fact that Premiere hasn't been a big player in the "pro" market may be a plus in that it seems the "prosumer" finds it friendly to use.

[Chris Kenny] "I think FCP X itself is maturing quite rapidly and its price and easy app store distribution will make it the go-to option for many new editors. My guess is that in five years FCP X will be a major force, mostly battling it out with Premiere, and Avid will have further retreated into specialty niches."

I agree. NEW EDITORS will be key. FCPX is friendly to people who don't have prior knowledge of other interfaces or, at least, don't have issues grasping the new way of doing things. It's people coming into the industry and people looking for low cost startup who will be more likely to adopt. It's an attrition battle that I suspect Apple feels they will win.

While the original formula for legacy FCP success isn't exactly the same, the combination of cost and user friendliness helped its success even when it wasn't close to Avid's feature set (and never matched it in some areas like Trimming and maybe Media Management). FCPX will creep up the later over time. We can see though, that Adobe is watching it closely and responding . . . something that Avid never did well.