Re: The Fog Thickens

[Herb Sevush] "If new paradigms were a precursor to success then Sony Vegas would be a market leader."

It probably should have been, on the merits. But Sony didn't really have much clout in the software market (Apple does), and the discontinuation of 'classic' Final Cut has created a vacuum that didn't previously exist, making it easier for new products (a category in which I include FCP X) to succeed.

[Herb Sevush] "It's not nearly as cheap as Lightworks, which is free."

I'm keeping a close eye on Lightworks, but I'm skeptical if development of a serious NLE can really be funded in the way they propose. This isn't the first time we've seen a business model in which the primary product is given away for free and the developer tries to make money from extras, and success with this model is quite spotty.

[Herb Sevush] "Most of it's updates were merely to fix stuff it was supposed to have in the first place."

This implies that Apple intended to ship these features in the first release but was unable to complete them in time. There's zero evidence of this. Apple has an established pattern of minimalistic initial releases, and it's consequently probable that the minimalistic initial release of FCP X was deliberate. So, we have Apple shipping a free update with major new features within 12 months of the initial release -- and planning additional major new features this year, probably within 18 months of the initial release, and probably also free.

It's always important to ask yourself if you're being mislead by trying to fit facts to a particular narrative. One good way to do this is to ask "If the same result had been achieved in a different way, would I have a more positive or negative view?" In this case, consider the fact that FCP X has a bunch of features FCP 7 never had. What if FCP X had shipped with broadcast monitoring, stem exports, XML and multicam (which it all now has), but things like tagging, auditions, automated shot analysis, and 4K support had been subsequently added over the past 12 months? Would people be claiming there hadn't been rapid significant feature additions because FCP X was supposed to have those features in the first place? I somehow doubt it. Yet logically there's no difference here -- either way Apple's accomplishments to date are the same.

[Herb Sevush] "The virtually unlimited resources of it's parent company are not aimed at this market at all and that same parent is infamous for it's policy of software infanticide. In other words - who knows?"

The modern Apple rarely kills is own in-house products (acquisitions are another story), and there is no particular indication that FCP X is being starved for developer resources.

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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

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