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Re: Working Over the weekend...

COW Forums : Apple FCPX or Not: The Debate

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Craig SeemanRe: Working Over the weekend...
by on Dec 2, 2011 at 7:33:53 pm

[Scott Cumbo] "I'm saying the 2 companies don't compare to each other."

They do if you're an investor. They also do if you're a customer and you're thinking long term, and it's the long term that "Pro" are having doubts about Apple. I'd present doubts about Avid as well.

As far as we editors/post houses are concerned you can compare long term viability.

Today's Media Composer might be tomorrow's Discreet Edit if Avid decides to make a major change to survive. Today's Media Composer might be tomorrow's CMX if they fold.

My guess, only a guess obviously, is that Avid can't continue on as they have been doing and we don't know which segment of the customer base will feel the hurt. Media Composer is not a profit generator, it's their hardware.

They're going to have to make a change, That's a given. Maybe you think their changes will happen in other ways to turn them around. I'd love to hear the speculation behind that.

Another way to look at a common element. Neither FCP or Media Composer are the prime profit generators for either of their respective companies.

Both companies make their money from selling hardware although it's very different hardware serving different markets.

FCP is supposed to sell hardware. It may be failing at that.
I'm not sure if Media Composer is supposed to sell hardware or if it's supposed to generate a profit margin relative to R&D costs.

[Scott Cumbo] "Apple can afford to forget about FCP and never notice the chump change they lost,"

They'd never notice the loss but they'd lose the vehicle for expanding hardware revenue. They misfired in the use of FCPX to generate hardware sales but they can afford to misfire and correct (or yes drop) the tool. Apple is using FCPX as a hardware growth opportunity at the moment.


[Scott Cumbo] "Avid has no hope if MC6 tanks and will gladly gather up all the loose change apple dropped."

But that's not true. Avid makes money selling hardware. I'm not sure if MC6 does that. I'm not sure if that's Avid's business model for it. MC used to sell $60,000 NLEs with proprietary boards. What does it do now for them? I don't know. I'm not even sure if Avid knows. Pro Tools was supposed to drive an expensive hardware upgrade and they're getting backlash on that.

Maybe MC6 at $2500 or $1500 crossgrade sells in such big numbers that it lifts them out of millions of dollars of loses year after year. I just don't see that. MC6 is really just a small part of a very big problem Avid faces. They may well be able to lose MC as Discreet lost Edit (and Cleaner, Combustion).

i think up until very recently Avid hoped MC would drive the sales of some proprietary hardware but they've obviously rethought that. So is their goal to grow MC market share? Can that be a major component to lift them up? Honestly, I'm not sure of that. Honestly, I don't see how that business model works for them. Please explain.

[Scott Cumbo] "and as a side note, neither of these companies send me a paycheck so i could care less if they both vanish. I'll find some other software to use."

But as people involved in our own business we look for cost effective solutions that help our own margins. I've been through enough linear and non linear systems to know that I'll adapt without much issue . . . as long as the capital investment gives me a good margin.

Let's forget about company names for a second (although they'll be obvious).

I like Brand X and I think they'll improve NLE X because they want to sell more of hardware X.
I can easily use Brand Y (and did) but I don't know what Brand Y's motive is to improve NLE Y and I'm not likely to buy Brand Y's hardware.

Brand X could certainly decide that NLE X is a failure at selling hardware and kill it.
Brand Y could certainly decide that NLE Y isn't worth sustaining since it doesn't have a viable business objective for them any longer.

My personal opinion but I think X has a goal I can understand and is motivated. Y doesn't show a clear motive for me and I am unsure about it.

Additionally X presents a lows cost option with better margins for my business than Y. If lots of others feel the same, that doesn't make things look good for Y.



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