WAKE UP PEOPLE - The End is Nigh

The end of 4x3 SD television, that is. Consider this:

1) Currently broadcasters must continue to support the large number of 4x3 TVs that pick up their analog signal. After the digital transition next February, everyone will have either cable TV or a set top box that will have the capability of letterboxing 16x9 programming on a 4x3 TV, thus letting broadcasters off the hook having to directly support 4x3 screens.

2) It is impractical to produce both 4x3 and 16x9 programming simultaneously.

3) The number of 16x9 screens is at 33% rapidly heading for 50%. 4x3 new TV sales are negligable.

4) 4x3 programming on a 16x9 screen looks like crap.

These four factors, along with inter-market competition, will ensure that broadcasters switch to 16x9 format en masse probably by the end of next year. And of course I mean 16x9 HD, since it would be silly to stick with SD at this point.

It seems that Cable interests apparently have the clout with the FCC to eliminate multi-channel must-carry. This more or less kills the practicality of the multi-channel SD options that broadcasters were promised. So ultimately they are likely to provide only a single channel of HD within their assigned bandwidth. But even if they do continue to produce SD programming, it is going to be 16x9 to accomodate the soon-to-be majority of 16x9 TVs.

My point is that this transition is going to be much sooner and much quicker than most people expect - including people in the production business.