I'll preface this by saying I have a recent, high-end Mac and a medium-speed DSL connection. So I'm probably average or above in terms of technology.
Here's an example of what I saw:
http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/spry/demos/effects/index.html
The first time I ran the "slide" demo (using Safari) there was one hiccup in the movement after the first second or two of the effect. When I ran it again, either consecutively or after running the other effects, the motion was very smooth.
Oddly, I tried the same thing in Camino and even the first time there was no hesitation in the movement.
Also, even when it does happen, it's subtle...just enough to notice.
Now compare that to this, done in Flash:
http://www.archway.com
As I roll over the right-side buttons, I don't see any hesitation in the photo transitions, and the animation within them looks very smooth, too.
If the smoothness of motion in Spry vs Flash is really YMMV, then I guess I'm left with these two considerations:
1. Let's say that Archway didn't have the animation within the photos. Could they have used Spry simply to get the falling shutter effect between photos?
2. If both could have been used and were equally likely to produce smooth transitions, should I favor Spry on the assumption that more users will see the effect (since they don't need a plug-in)?
Thanks, Abraham!