Re: Avid says No to NAB 2008

[Mark Suszko] "Ron, to follow up on your car analogies, if Chevy suddenly decided to not have a presence in the Detroit Auto Show, but said: "We're not interested in the auto show, but we'll have a presence in town", what would you rate their stock at afterwards?"

Personally? I could care less if they went or not. I think most buyers think exactly the same. Few people attend these "events" in comparison to those that don't. I never have and I am a Chevy guy born and raised, having had them since high school. Though I now drive something else, but I loved my 2000 Impala -- it got great mileage on the road and never cost us a dime in maintenance, not one. (Other than oil changes, air filters, etc.)

But while I drove that car, some of my friends were driving Mercedes and paying nearly three-times the money and footing one of the highest cost-per-mile maintenance schedules in the automotive world. They loved them. Why? Don't ask me, I am not of that market.

My point is that those who buy the massive suites and foot the bill for multi-million dollar facilities nearly always go Avid. It costs more and the maintenance costs make them such that they should ship as standard equipment with all Mercedes sold.

But their market loves 'em -- well, loves to hate them. It's like one of those twisted marriages you see wherein the couple can't stand each other but can't stand to be without each other. Don't ask me how they do it, I'm with Kathlyn and so life is good.

;o)


[Mark Suszko] "Non-Avid people who might have been interested in a purchase are now going to sit on their hands and see what happens instead of pulling the trigger on a purchase, and Avid better hope those folks don't see another product they like in the mean time. There are plenty."

That's the very point, Mark: those who can be satisfied with something that they could buy breezing past a tradeshow booth for a few minutes and buy it almost as an impulse item, are likely not Avid prospects anyway.

You are right, there are indeed plenty of options just as there are plenty of different kinds of cars. Again, "cheap and gets you to where you're going" isn't always what moves the needle for some buyers, buyers often willing to pay two- to three-times what others do just to "get there."

It's that human nature thingie, again.


[Mark Suszko] "What Avid has now is a panic, like a run on the bank. How is that good?"

This presumes that your thoughts and feelings are the thoughts and feelings of all -- or even the majority of Avid users.

Kathlyn and I learned long ago that happy customers rarely post. Almost never. But anger someone or give someone something to complain about and they are all over the place in droves.

It's that human nature thingie, once more. (But hey, it's consistent.)

I have talked with quite a number of people since I wrote what I wrote. The verdict? Most of those looking at Avid think the sky is falling for Avid. But among those who make their living with Avid, most could care less and know where to find Avid when they want them.

Oddly, I have even had some of them tell me that, "Ron, I have half my company running on old AVR 77 machines and I still make a lot of money with them. Even if Avid were to go away, I'll make money with the newer machines long after they are paid for. I don't care..."

It seems to be a far bigger deal to those who don't use Avids, than to those that do use them.

I hate to say it, but I think it's that human nature thingie -- yet again.


But I have one question for you, Mark: Do you honestly believe that Avid could make such a major and fundamental shift without running it before the Board of Directors first? If they didn't get their approval, I would guarantee you that heads would and will roll again.



[Mark Suszko] "If Hollywood made 400 films this year, that's about ten miuntes worth of one day's worth of uploads to YouTube. I didn't say anything about quality, just numbers."

Yes, and most of it not worth watching -- and so no one does watch most of it. One of my favorite videos has been watched a mere 300 times or so in three years. Hardly anything to spark a Neilsens parade. Most of the videos on YouTube fall into that category.

To finish with the car analogy: YouTube is like the Yugo. Yes, it burned gas and the tires turned but it appealed to few people but those who couldn't afford anything else.

YouTube is a great thing and I love it. But it is hardly the market that Avid focuses on.

Best regards,

Ron Lindeboom
creativecow.net
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